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Will it be 1990 all over again?

Answer: no, more like 1993

In 1990 the ALP won with a minority of the vote for the first and only time. In doing so they got a derisory primary vote - a touch under 40% - easily bested by the Coalition. But they received preferences galore from Greens and Democrats. Many of these were Labor votes being channeled through these third parties, and were never going anywhere else, but with the environment a big election issue Labor also specifically urged Democrat and Greens voters to give them their preferences

After these preferences Labor got 49.9% to Coalition's 50.1 and won by eight seats. So equally if not more important to their winning of preferences were marginal seats campaigning and the demographic electoral changes.

The similarities between 2001 and 1990 look to be: a very low ALP primary vote compared a substantially better Coalition one, a very high distribution of preferences to Labor and and the strong possibility of Labor winning a majority of seats with under 50% of the two party preferred vote.