Election 2007 washup in Crikey
16. When a swing is on ...
Peter
Brent from Mumble
Elections writes:
While the overall result was about what I expected, the seat-swing make-up wasn’t. Elections in this country have traditionally hinged largely on the outer suburban mortgage belt and the regions, but I had anticipated that this time the mortgage belt might stick with the government and it would be up to everyone else to swing.
How wrong I was. This change of government was business as usual.
This table shows all seats in order of Saturday’s swing to Labor (using latest data). I’ve added the AEC Socio Demographics (Inner Metropolitan, Outer Metropolitan, Provincial or Rural) and the swing eleven years ago in 1996 that ended the Keating government.
The top is littered with Rural and Outer Metros, while the bottom contains lots of inner cities. And see Macarthur: almost identical swings in ’96 and ’07 (12 and 11 respectively). It’s on a knife-edge, but if Macarthur goes to Labor its bellwether status will remain intact from its creation in 1949.
Seats in order of swing
|
Seat |
AEC Geographic |
Swing ‘07 |
Swing ‘96 |
|
Leichhardt (Qld) |
Rural |
14.8 |
-5.5 |
|
Forde (Qld) |
Rural |
14.6 |
-9.4 |
|
Dawson (Qld) |
Rural |
13.6 |
-6.0 |
|
Calwell (Vic) |
Outer Metro |
11.2 |
0.1 |
|
Barker (SA) |
Rural |
11.0 |
-4.9 |
|
Macarthur (NSW) |
Outer Metro |
11.0 |
-12.0 |
|
Holt (Vic) |
Outer Metro |
10.7 |
0.4 |
|
Groom (Qld) |
Provincial |
10.5 |
-7.2 |
|
Blair (Qld) |
Rural |
10.4 |
NA |
|
Longman (Qld) |
Rural |
10.2 |
-8.1 |
|
Lindsay (NSW) |
Outer Metro |
9.8 |
-11.8 |
|
Fairfax (Qld) |
Rural |
9.8 |
-8.1 |
|
Petrie (Qld) |
Outer Metro |
9.6 |
-9.9 |
|
Mitchell (NSW) |
Outer Metro |
9.6 |
-5.7 |
|
Grey (SA) |
Rural |
9.3 |
-6.5 |
|
Throsby (NSW) |
Provincial |
9.3 |
-4.4 |
|
Dickson (Qld) |
Outer Metro |
9.2 |
-5.7 |
|
Rankin (Qld) |
Outer Metro |
9.0 |
-11.7 |
|
Hume (NSW) |
Rural |
8.9 |
-8.1 |
|
Dobell (NSW) |
Provincial |
8.9 |
-6.7 |
|
Bowman (Qld) |
Outer Metro |
8.9 |
-9.0 |
|
Flynn (Qld) |
Rural |
8.9 |
NA |
|
Makin (SA) |
Outer Metro |
8.8 |
-4.8 |
|
Aston (Vic) |
Outer Metro |
8.4 |
-3.0 |
|
Greenway (NSW) |
Outer Metro |
8.4 |
-10.0 |
|
Chifley (NSW) |
Outer Metro |
8.3 |
-8.0 |
|
Fisher (Qld) |
Provincial |
8.2 |
-10.0 |
|
Page (NSW) |
Rural |
8.1 |
-4.4 |
|
Capricornia (Qld) |
Provincial |
8.1 |
-6.4 |
|
Werriwa (NSW) |
Outer Metro |
7.9 |
-9.6 |
|
Banks (NSW) |
Inner Metro |
7.8 |
-9.1 |
|
Parramatta (NSW) |
Inner Metro |
7.7 |
-7.1 |
|
Moreton (Qld) |
Inner Metro |
7.6 |
-5.3 |
|
Wakefield (SA) |
Outer Metro |
7.5 |
-3.0 |
|
Indi (Vic) |
Rural |
7.4 |
-4.5 |
|
Oxley (Qld) |
Outer Metro |
7.4 |
-19.3 |
|
Robertson (NSW) |
Provincial |
7.3 |
-9.1 |
|
Maranoa (Qld) |
Rural |
7.3 |
-7.6 |
|
Prospect (NSW) |
Outer Metro |
7.3 |
-5.1 |
|
Mayo (SA) |
Rural |
7.2 |
-4.6 |
|
Lalor (Vic) |
Outer Metro |
7.1 |
-0.5 |
|
Hinkler (Qld) |
Rural |
6.8 |
-10.4 |
|
Ryan (Qld) |
Outer Metro |
6.8 |
-6.2 |
|
Port Adelaide (SA) |
Inner Metro |
6.8 |
-5.0 |
|
Eden-Monaro (NSW) |
Rural |
6.7 |
-9.0 |
|
Corangamite (Vic) |
Provincial |
6.6 |
-1.7 |
|
Gellibrand (Vic) |
Inner Metro |
6.6 |
-4.3 |
|
Deakin (Vic) |
Outer Metro |
6.5 |
-1.9 |
|
Richmond (NSW) |
Rural |
6.4 |
-8.5 |
|
Hughes (NSW) |
Outer Metro |
6.4 |
-11.3 |
|
Sturt (SA) |
Inner Metro |
6.4 |
-4.3 |
|
Herbert (Qld) |
Provincial |
6.3 |
-9.9 |
|
Cunningham (NSW) |
Provincial |
6.3 |
-5.0 |
|
McEwen (Vic) |
Rural |
6.2 |
-1.5 |
|
Cook (NSW) |
Inner Metro |
6.2 |
-8.8 |
|
Murray (Vic) |
Rural |
6.2 |
-3.4 |
|
Adelaide (SA) |
Inner Metro |
6.1 |
-2.2 |
|
Ballarat (Vic) |
Provincial |
6.1 |
-2.1 |
|
Fadden (Qld) |
Outer Metro |
6.1 |
-12.7 |
|
Isaacs (Vic) |
Outer Metro |
6.1 |
-2.4 |
|
Newcastle (NSW) |
Provincial |
6.0 |
-5.7 |
|
Scullin (Vic) |
Outer Metro |
6.0 |
-1.7 |
|
Casey (Vic) |
Outer Metro |
5.9 |
-2.5 |
|
Cowper (NSW) |
Rural |
5.9 |
-7.5 |
|
Gilmore (NSW) |
Rural |
5.7 |
-6.7 |
|
La Trobe (Vic) |
Outer Metro |
5.6 |
-0.1 |
|
Shortland (NSW) |
Provincial |
5.6 |
-9.2 |
|
Gorton (Vic) |
Outer Metro |
5.6 |
NA |
|
Paterson (NSW) |
Rural |
5.5 |
-3.7 |
|
Dunkley (Vic) |
Outer Metro |
5.5 |
-1.0 |
|
Macquarie (NSW) |
Outer Metro |
5.5 |
-6.5 |
|
Wills (Vic) |
Inner Metro |
5.5 |
2.0 |
|
Maribyrnong (Vic) |
Outer Metro |
5.5 |
0.0 |
|
Lyons (Tas) |
Rural |
5.4 |
-2.5 |
|
Watson (NSW) |
Inner Metro |
5.4 |
-3.2 |
|
Moncrieff (Qld) |
Provincial |
5.3 |
-7.3 |
|
Bendigo (Vic) |
Provincial |
5.3 |
-2.2 |
|
Hotham (Vic) |
Outer Metro |
5.3 |
1.4 |
|
Bonner (Qld) |
Outer Metro |
5.3 |
NA |
|
Bennelong (NSW) |
Inner Metro |
5.2 |
-7.0 |
|
McPherson (Qld) |
Provincial |
5.2 |
-8.6 |
|
Menzies (Vic) |
Outer Metro |
5.1 |
-1.7 |
|
Lyne (NSW) |
Rural |
5.1 |
-11.2 |
|
Farrer (NSW) |
Rural |
5.1 |
-3.8 |
|
Forrest (WA) |
Rural |
5.0 |
-1.9 |
|
Riverina (NSW) |
Rural |
4.9 |
-8.1 |
|
Hunter (NSW) |
Rural |
4.9 |
-7.0 |
|
Hindmarsh (SA) |
Inner Metro |
4.8 |
-6.4 |
|
Chisholm (Vic) |
Inner Metro |
4.7 |
-2.2 |
|
Fowler (NSW) |
Outer Metro |
4.7 |
-3.7 |
|
Parkes (NSW) |
Rural |
4.6 |
-6.0 |
|
Jagajaga (Vic) |
Outer Metro |
4.6 |
-0.6 |
|
Barton (NSW) |
Inner Metro |
4.6 |
-5.1 |
|
Charlton (NSW) |
Provincial |
4.6 |
-7.8 |
|
Batman (Vic) |
Inner Metro |
4.6 |
-3.0 |
|
Bruce (Vic) |
Outer Metro |
4.5 |
-0.8 |
|
Kingsford Smith (NSW) |
Inner Metro |
4.5 |
-5.1 |
|
Berowra (NSW) |
Outer Metro |
4.4 |
-6.2 |
|
Lowe (NSW) |
Inner Metro |
4.4 |
-7.5 |
|
North Sydney (NSW) |
Inner Metro |
4.3 |
-6.0 |
|
Kingston (SA) |
Outer Metro |
4.3 |
-3.5 |
|
Wannon (Vic) |
Rural |
4.2 |
-2.8 |
|
Goldstein (Vic) |
Inner Metro |
4.2 |
-2.0 |
|
Kalgoorlie (WA) |
Rural |
4.0 |
-6.6 |
|
Bass (Tas) |
Provincial |
4.0 |
-4.6 |
|
Canning (WA) |
Outer Metro |
4.0 |
-0.9 |
|
Wide Bay (Qld) |
Rural |
3.9 |
-9.7 |
|
Reid (NSW) |
Inner Metro |
3.9 |
-7.4 |
|
O'Connor (WA) |
Rural |
3.8 |
-1.9 |
|
Pearce (WA) |
Provincial |
3.7 |
-3.4 |
|
Griffith (Qld) |
Outer Metro |
3.7 |
-7.4 |
|
Grayndler (NSW) |
Inner Metro |
3.6 |
-6.4 |
|
Mallee (Vic) |
Rural |
3.5 |
-8.6 |
|
Bradfield (NSW) |
Inner Metro |
3.4 |
-2.7 |
|
Lingiari (NT) |
Rural |
3.4 |
NA |
|
Corio (Vic) |
Provincial |
3.3 |
-2.0 |
|
Hasluck (WA) |
Outer Metro |
3.1 |
NA |
|
Lilley (Qld) |
Inner Metro |
3.1 |
-6.9 |
|
Blaxland (NSW) |
Inner Metro |
3.1 |
-9.1 |
|
Solomon (NT) |
Inner Metro |
3.0 |
NA |
|
Mackellar (NSW) |
Outer Metro |
3.0 |
-5.4 |
|
Braddon (Tas) |
Rural |
3.0 |
-2.9 |
|
Flinders (Vic) |
Rural |
2.9 |
-4.4 |
|
Tangney (WA) |
Inner Metro |
2.9 |
-0.3 |
|
Brisbane (Qld) |
Inner Metro |
2.9 |
-5.8 |
|
Denison (Tas) |
Inner Metro |
2.6 |
-2.7 |
|
Melbourne Ports (Vic) |
Inner Metro |
2.4 |
0.2 |
|
Boothby (SA) |
Outer Metro |
2.0 |
-3.8 |
|
Gippsland (Vic) |
Rural |
1.9 |
-2.8 |
|
Higgins (Vic) |
Inner Metro |
1.9 |
-1.4 |
|
Perth (WA) |
Inner Metro |
1.9 |
0.3 |
|
Moore (WA) |
Outer Metro |
1.8 |
0.6 |
|
Fraser (ACT) |
Inner Metro |
1.8 |
-4.7 |
|
Sydney (NSW) |
Inner Metro |
1.8 |
-5.7 |
|
Canberra (ACT) |
Inner Metro |
1.6 |
-3.3 |
|
Brand (WA) |
Provincial |
1.5 |
-3.5 |
|
Warringah (NSW) |
Inner Metro |
1.3 |
-5.1 |
|
Fremantle (WA) |
Inner Metro |
1.3 |
-3.5 |
|
Melbourne (Vic) |
Inner Metro |
0.9 |
-3.5 |
|
Curtin (WA) |
Inner Metro |
0.8 |
1.2 |
|
McMillan (Vic) |
Rural |
0.8 |
-2.6 |
|
Stirling (WA) |
Inner Metro |
0.8 |
-3.7 |
|
Calare (NSW) |
Rural |
0.6 |
-7.0 |
|
Kooyong (Vic) |
Inner Metro |
0.2 |
-0.5 |
|
Swan (WA) |
Inner Metro |
-0.2 |
-3.9 |
|
Wentworth (NSW) |
Inner Metro |
-0.9 |
-2.4 |
|
Cowan (WA) |
Outer Metro |
-2.2 |
-1.5 |
|
Franklin (Tas) |
Outer Metro |
-2.6 |
-2.8 |
Because NSW and Queensland did most of the heavy lifting in both landslides, I’ve extracted the top 20 seats in those two states. (The nationwide swings were about 5 percent in 1996 and 6.5 percent in 2007.) See below; again lots of big numbers in the right hand column as well. In some cases the column entries are almost identical.
Top 20 Qld and NSW swingers
|
Seat |
AEC Geo |
Swing ‘07 |
Swing ‘96 |
|
Leichhardt (Qld) |
Rural |
14.8 |
-5.5 |
|
Forde (Qld) |
Rural |
14.6 |
-9.4 |
|
Dawson (Qld) |
Rural |
13.6 |
-6.0 |
|
Macarthur (NSW) |
Outer Metro |
11.0 |
-12.0 |
|
Groom (Qld) |
Provincial |
10.5 |
-7.2 |
|
Blair (Qld) |
Rural |
10.4 |
NA |
|
Longman (Qld) |
Rural |
10.2 |
-8.1 |
|
Lindsay (NSW) |
Outer Metro |
9.8 |
-11.8 |
|
Fairfax (Qld) |
Rural |
9.8 |
-8.1 |
|
Petrie (Qld) |
Outer Metro |
9.6 |
-9.9 |
|
Mitchell (NSW) |
Outer Metro |
9.6 |
-5.7 |
|
Throsby (NSW) |
Provincial |
9.3 |
-4.4 |
|
Dickson (Qld) |
Outer Metro |
9.2 |
-5.7 |
|
Rankin (Qld) |
Outer Metro |
9.0 |
-11.7 |
|
Hume (NSW) |
Rural |
8.9 |
-8.1 |
|
Dobell (NSW) |
Provincial |
8.9 |
-6.7 |
|
Bowman (Qld) |
Outer Metro |
8.9 |
-9.0 |
|
Flynn (Qld) |
Rural |
8.9 |
NA |
|
Greenway (NSW) |
Outer Metro |
8.4 |
-10.0 |
|
Chifley (NSW) |
Outer Metro |
8.3 |
-8.0 |
So “middle Australia” did largely decide this election.
17. The polls: who got it right?
Peter
Brent from Mumble
Elections writes:
Here are the final week opinion poll results:
|
Final polls 2007 |
Primary support |
||||||||
|
Pollster |
Date |
Sample |
Coal |
ALP |
Green |
Dems |
FF |
Oth |
ALP 2PP |
|
Newspoll |
21-2 |
2615 |
43 |
44 |
7 |
|
|
9 |
52 |
|
Nielsen |
19-21 Nov |
2071 |
40.5 |
47.5 |
8.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
2 |
57 |
|
Galaxy |
20-1 Nov |
1200 |
42.5 |
42.5 |
8.5 |
|
2.4 |
4 |
52 |
|
Morgan (1) |
21-2 Nov |
1311 |
40.5 |
44.5 |
9 |
1 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
54.5 |
|
Morgan (2) |
23 Nov |
2115 |
41.5 |
43.5 |
8.5 |
|
2.5 |
4 |
53.5 |
|
Preliminary election result |
41.8 |
44.0 |
7.6 |
|
1.9 |
53.6 |
|||
Churning this lot through the poll-mix came to (to the nearest half a percent) 53.5 to 46.5, which, like the Morgan poll taken on Friday evening, was just about spot on.
18. Brent: Liberals out of office and a million miles away from the action
Peter
Brent from Mumble
Elections writes:
Labor will probably get a few terms in government, and anyone who thinks the Coalition can get back in three years is dreaming. And that’s not because of the large margin; the same would be true if Rudd had only scraped in with one seat. Look at what’s happened in the states over the past decade: it’s the incumbency that matters, not how you got it.
ALP National Secretary Tim Gartrell is already out telling his story about why Labor won. This is his right and perhaps duty: to trash the memory of the vanquished party and play with their mind. As Andrew Robb did so effectively in 1996 with, among other things, the spurious “Howard’s battlers" tale.
On Insiders yesterday, Andrew Bolt marvelled at the embarrassment of talent coming onto the Labor front bench: Shorten, Combet etc. This time last year these very people were seen as part of the reason the ALP would never be elected again. Such are the fruits of victory.
The Liberals now take their turn in the wilderness, where you don’t know what you stand for and neither does anyone else, the party organisation is a terrible problem and no-one takes you seriously.
Out of office and a million miles away from the action. A miserable place to be.
|