mumble



WWW
 
mumble

home

about

  email: elect AT
mumble.com.au

seat 2pp graphs '07

2005 WA Pendulum

Federal pendulum (old)

margins since 1983

Qld election 2004

Federal results by two party preferred

See the lemmings!

published articles

two decades of Newspolls

state votes at federal elections

Votes and seat
representation
1949 - 2001

Newspoll
preferences


Newspoll &
Morgan graphs

preferential voting

Newspoll Opposition leader approval ratings

Newspoll Opposition voting intentions

 

 

From Megalogenis-Oz census etc data

(Go to state by state)

Red is Labor, Blue Liberal, Brown National, Orange Independent
Each line shows: rank seat (state) current margin socio demographic  percentage house value increase. 
AEC socio demographic key: r = rural, p = provincial, o = outer metro, i = inner metro

Federal electorates by % median house value increase since 2004. Source: The Australian
[click any seat to go to Pollbludger seat description]

1 Forrest (WA) 10.5 r 133.3
2 Hasluck (WA) 1.8 o 114.7
3 Capricornia (Qld) 3.7 p 114.3
4 Brand (WA) 4.7 p 114.1
5 Pearce (WA) 12.9 p 113.9
6 Canning (WA) 9.5 o 111.0
7 Dawson (Qld) 10.0 r 109.9
8 O'Connor (WA) 20.4 r 103.7
9 Stirling (WA) 2.0 i 100.0
10 Cowan (WA) 0.8 o 95.1
11 Fremantle (WA) 7.8 i 87.3
12 Kennedy (Qld) 8.9 r 86.4
13 Perth (WA) 6.7 i 80.8
14 Kalgoorlie (WA) 6.3 r 79.5
15 Flynn (Qld) 6.8 r 79.3
16 Swan (WA) 0.1 i 73.9
17 Tangney (WA) 11.8 i 72.9
18 Maranoa (Qld) 21.0 r 72.6
19 Moore (WA) 10.8 o 71.7
20 Herbert (Qld) 6.2 p 69.5
21 Franklin (Tas) 7.6 o 59.6
22 Curtin (WA) 14.6 i 57.2
23 Bass (Tas) 2.6 p 56.8
24 Leichhardt (Qld) 10.3 r 55.5
25 Solomon (NT) 2.8 i 52.4
26 Groom (Qld) 18.8 p 50.9
27 New England (NSW) 13.6 r 47.6
28 Denison (Tas) 13.3 i 46.8
29 Wide Bay (Qld) 12.2 r 46.6
30 Hinkler (Qld) 8.2 r 46.5
31 Lyons (Tas) 3.7 r 45.8
32 Braddon (Tas) 1.1 r 45.6
33 Grey (SA) 13.8 r 44.2
34 Blair (Qld) 5.7 r 43.6
35 Farrer (NSW) 16.8 r 39.0
36 Parkes (NSW) 18.8 r 38.3
37 Page (NSW) 5.5 r 37.9
38 Forde (Qld) 11.5 r 36.2
39 Rankin (Qld) 3.0 o 35.9
40 Barker (SA) 19.9 r 35.7
41 Port Adelaide (SA) 12.9 i 34.5
42 Oxley (Qld) 7.1 o 33.9
43 Riverina (NSW) 20.8 r 32.7
44 Murray (Vic) 24.1 r 32.5
45 Wakefield (SA) 0.7 o 30.0
46 Sturt (SA) 6.8 i 28.6
47 Indi (Vic) 16.3 r 28.6
48 Wannon (Vic) 12.4 r 28.2
49 Dickson (Qld) 8.9 o 27.1
50 Kingston (SA) 0.1 o 27.1

51 Gippsland (Vic) 7.7 r 26.7
52 Calare (NSW) 10.0 r 25.9
53 Mayo (SA) 13.6 r 24.5
54 Lingiari (NT) 7.7 r 24.4
55 Eden-Monaro (NSW) 3.3 r 24.0
56 Hunter (NSW) 11.1 r 23.8
57 Longman (Qld) 6.7 r 23.7
58 Fisher (Qld) 11.0 p 23.3
59 Boothby (SA) 5.4 o 22.8
60 Hindmarsh (SA) 0.1 i 22.0
61 Makin (SA) 0.9 o 22.0
62 Adelaide (SA) 1.3 i 21.8
63 Goldstein (Vic) 10.0 i 21.7
64 McMillan (Vic) 5.0 r 21.3
65 Brisbane (Qld) 3.9 i 21.1
66 Petrie (Qld) 7.4 o 20.0
67 Griffith (Qld) 8.5 o 20.0
68 McPherson (Qld) 13.9 p 19.3
69 Moreton (Qld) 2.8 i 19.1
70 Mallee (Vic) 24.8 r 18.9
71 Kooyong (Vic) 9.8 i 18.9
72 Higgins (Vic) 8.8 i 18.7
73 Bowman (Qld) 8.9 o 17.5
74 Cowper (NSW) 6.7 r 16.6
75 Ryan (Qld) 10.4 o 16.6
76 Lilley (Qld) 5.4 i 16.4
77 Bendigo (Vic) 1.0 p 16.2
78 Moncrieff (Qld) 19.5 p 16.0
79 Fadden (Qld) 15.9 o 15.9
80 Melbourne (Vic) 21.1 i 15.5
81 Corangamite (Vic) 5.3 p 15.2
82 Canberra (ACT) 9.9 i 15.2
83 Melbourne Ports (Vic) 3.7 i 15.2
84 Richmond (NSW) 1.4 r 14.9
85 Holt (Vic) 1.5 o 14.8
86 Chisholm (Vic) 2.7 i 14.6
87 La Trobe (Vic) 5.8 o 14.6
88 Bonner (Qld) 0.5 o 14.6
89 Fairfax (Qld) 12.4 r 14.5
90 Aston (Vic) 13.2 o 14.0
91 Deakin (Vic) 5.0 o 13.9
92 Hotham (Vic) 7.4 o 13.8
93 Lalor (Vic) 8.8 o 13.3
94 Ballarat (Vic) 2.2 p 13.2
95 Corio (Vic) 5.6 p 12.2
96 Isaacs (Vic) 1.5 o 12.2
97 Casey (Vic) 11.4 o 12.2
98 Fraser (ACT) 13.3 i 12.1
99 Menzies (Vic) 10.7 o 11.8
100 McEwen (Vic) 6.4 r 11.7
101 Bruce (Vic) 3.5 o 11.3
102 Batman (Vic) 21.3 i 11.1
103 Dunkley (Vic) 9.4 o 11.1
104 Warringah (NSW) 11.3 i 10.9
105 Flinders (Vic) 11.1 r 10.7
106 Gellibrand (Vic) 15.0 i 10.3
107 Macquarie (NSW) 0.5 o 10.3
108 Jagajaga (Vic) 4.4 o 9.9
109 Newcastle (NSW) 8.7 p 9.3
110 Hume (NSW) 12.8 r 8.9
111 Charlton (NSW) 8.4 p 8.8
112 Wills (Vic) 16.9 i 8.7
113 Gorton (Vic) 14.9 o 7.8
114 Paterson (NSW) 6.1 r 6.7
115 Maribyrnong (Vic) 9.5 o 6.4
116 Calwell (Vic) 8.2 o 6.4
117 Scullin (Vic) 14.8 o 6.1
118 Gilmore (NSW) 9.4 r 4.8
119 Lyne (NSW) 13.4 r 4.0
120 Shortland (NSW) 9.2 p 3.2
121 Throsby (NSW) 13.8 p 3.2
122 Bradfield (NSW) 17.4 i 3.1
123 North Sydney (NSW) 10.0 i 2.6
124 Greenway (NSW) 11.4 o 2.4
125 Mackellar (NSW) 15.5 o 1.9
126 Wentworth (NSW) 2.5 i 0.0
127 Sydney (NSW) 17.2 i -1.7
128 Macarthur (NSW) 11.1 o -2.1
129 Dobell (NSW) 4.8 p -2.9
130 Lindsay (NSW) 2.9 o -3.1
131 Berowra (NSW) 13.9 o -3.1
132 Robertson (NSW) 6.9 p -3.7
133 Mitchell (NSW) 20.7 o -4.4
134 Bennelong (NSW) 4.2 i -4.5
135 Grayndler (NSW) 21.2 i -4.5
136 Chifley (NSW) 12.0 o -4.6
137 Prospect (NSW) 6.4 o -4.8
138 Kingsford Smith (NSW) 8.5 i -5.0
139 Hughes (NSW) 8.5 o -5.6
140 Cunningham (NSW) 11.6 p -5.8
141 Werriwa (NSW) 6.9 o -5.8
142 Fowler (NSW) 13.3 o -6.0
143 Parramatta (NSW) 0.9 i -7.8
144 Reid (NSW) 12.0 i -8.1
145 Lowe (NSW) 3.0 i -9.5
146 Banks (NSW) 3.2 i -11.7
147 Blaxland (NSW) 15.2 i -11.7
148 Cook (NSW) 13.3 i -12.7
149 Barton (NSW) 7.6 i -14.2
150 Watson (NSW) 14.5 i -15.4

As you know, general expectations are that WA will stick with the government, relative to other states, and WA certainly dominates the top of this table, Qld electorates also scatter around there a bit. Meanwhile, the bottom 50 almost reads like a who's who of NSW seats, with Sydney in particular, and western Sydney even more particularly, at the bottom. No wonder the word is that Sydney is ready to give Mr Howard the heave-ho.

Sydney was the first into the housing bubble, and first out. Melbourne was next.

From this data, the state by state average median house increases since 2004 are:

Western Australia  94%
Tasmania 51%
Queensland 40%
South Australia 28%
Victoria 15%
New South Wales 5%

And here it is by state. Interesting, rural seats have uniformly been doing well. Perhaps there was a a lag, ie the urban ones rose first.

Federal electorates by % median house value increase since 2004, by state. Source: The Australian
[click any seat to go to Pollbludger seat description]

New South Wales
1 New England (NSW) 13.6 r 47.6
2 Farrer (NSW) 16.8 r 39.0
3 Parkes (NSW) 18.8 r 38.3
4 Page (NSW) 5.5 r 37.9
5 Riverina (NSW) 20.8 r 32.7
6 Calare (NSW) 10.0 r 25.9
7 Eden-Monaro (NSW) 3.3 r 24.0
8 Hunter (NSW) 11.1 r 23.8
9 Cowper (NSW) 6.7 r 16.6
10 Richmond (NSW) 1.4 r 14.9
11 Warringah (NSW) 11.3 i 10.9
12 Macquarie (NSW) 0.5 o 10.3
13 Newcastle (NSW) 8.7 p 9.3
14 Hume (NSW) 12.8 r 8.9
15 Charlton (NSW) 8.4 p 8.8
16 Paterson (NSW) 6.1 r 6.7
17 Gilmore (NSW) 9.4 r 4.8
19 Lyne (NSW) 13.4 r 4.0
20 Shortland (NSW) 9.2 p 3.2
21 Throsby (NSW) 13.8 p 3.2
22 Bradfield (NSW) 17.4 i 3.1
23 North Sydney (NSW) 10.0 i 2.6
24 Greenway (NSW) 11.4 o 2.4
25 Mackellar (NSW) 15.5 o 1.9
26 Wentworth (NSW) 2.5 i 0.0
27 Sydney (NSW) 17.2 i -1.7
28 Macarthur (NSW) 11.1 o -2.1
29 Dobell (NSW) 4.8 p -2.9
30 Lindsay (NSW) 2.9 o -3.1
31 Berowra (NSW) 13.9 o -3.1
32 Robertson (NSW) 6.9 p -3.7
33 Mitchell (NSW) 20.7 o -4.4
34 Bennelong (NSW) 4.2 i -4.5
35 Grayndler (NSW) 21.2 i -4.5
36 Chifley (NSW) 12.0 o -4.6
37 Prospect (NSW) 6.4 o -4.8
38 Kingsford Smith (NSW) 8.5 i -5.0
39 Hughes (NSW) 8.5 o -5.6
40 Cunningham (NSW) 11.6 p -5.8
41 Werriwa (NSW) 6.9 o -5.8
42 Fowler (NSW) 13.3 o -6.0
43 Parramatta (NSW) 0.9 i -7.8
44 Reid (NSW) 12.0 i -8.1
45 Lowe (NSW) 3.0 i -9.5
46 Banks (NSW) 3.2 i -11.7
47 Blaxland (NSW) 15.2 i -11.7
48 Cook (NSW) 13.3 i -12.7
49 Barton (NSW) 7.6 i -14.2
50 Watson (NSW) 14.5 i -15.4
Victoria
1 Murray (Vic) 24.1 r 32.5
2 Indi (Vic) 16.3 r 28.6
3 Wannon (Vic) 12.4 r 28.2
4 Gippsland (Vic) 7.7 r 26.7
5 Goldstein (Vic) 10.0 i 21.7
6 McMillan (Vic) 5.0 r 21.3
7 Mallee (Vic) 24.8 r 18.9
8 Kooyong (Vic) 9.8 i 18.9
9 Higgins (Vic) 8.8 i 18.7
10 Bendigo (Vic) 1.0 p 16.2
11 Melbourne (Vic) 21.1 i 15.5
12 Corangamite (Vic) 5.3 p 15.2
13 Melbourne Ports (Vic) 3.7 i 15.2
14 Holt (Vic) 1.5 o 14.8
15 Chisholm (Vic) 2.7 i 14.6
16 La Trobe (Vic) 5.8 o 14.6
17 Aston (Vic) 13.2 o 14.0
18 Deakin (Vic) 5.0 o 13.9
19 Hotham (Vic) 7.4 o 13.8
20 Lalor (Vic) 8.8 o 13.3
21 Ballarat (Vic) 2.2 p 13.2
22 Corio (Vic) 5.6 p 12.2
23 Isaacs (Vic) 1.5 o 12.2
24 Casey (Vic) 11.4 o 12.2
25 Menzies (Vic) 10.7 o 11.8
26 McEwen (Vic) 6.4 r 11.7
27 Bruce (Vic) 3.5 o 11.3
28 Batman (Vic) 21.3 i 11.1
29 Dunkley (Vic) 9.4 o 11.1
30 Flinders (Vic) 11.1 r 10.7
31 Gellibrand (Vic) 15.0 i 10.3
32 Jagajaga (Vic) 4.4 o 9.9
33 Wills (Vic) 16.9 i 8.7
34 Gorton (Vic) 14.9 o 7.8
35 Maribyrnong (Vic) 9.5 o 6.4
36 Calwell (Vic) 8.2 o 6.4
37 Scullin (Vic) 14.8 o 6.1

Tasmania
1 Franklin (Tas) 7.6 o 59.6
2 Bass (Tas) 2.6 p 56.8
3 Denison (Tas) 13.3 i 46.8
4 Lyons (Tas) 3.7 r 45.8
5 Braddon (Tas) 1.1 r 45.6

Queensland
1 Capricornia (Qld) 3.7 p 114.3
2 Dawson (Qld) 10.0 r 109.9
3 Kennedy (Qld) 8.9 r 86.4
4 Flynn (Qld) 6.8 r 79.3
5 Maranoa (Qld) 21.0 r 72.6
6 Herbert (Qld) 6.2 p 69.5
7 Leichhardt (Qld) 10.3 r 55.5
8 Groom (Qld) 18.8 p 50.9
9 Wide Bay (Qld) 12.2 r 46.6
10 Hinkler (Qld) 8.2 r 46.5
11 Blair (Qld) 5.7 r 43.6
12 Forde (Qld) 11.5 r 36.2
13 Rankin (Qld) 3.0 o 35.9
14 Oxley (Qld) 7.1 o 33.9
15 Dickson (Qld) 8.9 o 27.1
16 Longman (Qld) 6.7 r 23.7
17 Fisher (Qld) 11.0 p 23.3
18 Brisbane (Qld) 3.9 i 21.1
19 Petrie (Qld) 7.4 o 20.0
20 Griffith (Qld) 8.5 o 20.0
21 McPherson (Qld) 13.9 p 19.3
22 Moreton (Qld) 2.8 i 19.1
23 Bowman (Qld) 8.9 o 17.5
24 Ryan (Qld) 10.4 o 16.6
25 Lilley (Qld) 5.4 i 16.4
26 Moncrieff (Qld) 19.5 p 16.0
27 Fadden (Qld) 15.9 o 15.9
28 Bonner (Qld) 0.5 o 14.6
29 Fairfax (Qld) 12.4 r 14.5

Western Australia
1 Forrest (WA) 10.5 r 133.3
2 Hasluck (WA) 1.8 o 114.7
3 Brand (WA) 4.7 p 114.1
4 Pearce (WA) 12.9 p 113.9
5 Canning (WA) 9.5 o 111.0
6 O'Connor (WA) 20.4 r 103.7
7 Stirling (WA) 2.0 i 100.0
8 Cowan (WA) 0.8 o 95.1
9 Fremantle (WA) 7.8 i 87.3
10 Perth (WA) 6.7 i 80.8
11 Kalgoorlie (WA) 6.3 r 79.5
12 Swan (WA) 0.1 i 73.9
13 Tangney (WA) 11.8 i 72.9
14 Moore (WA) 10.8 o 71.7
15 Curtin (WA) 14.6 i 57.2

 

South Australia
1 Grey (SA) 13.8 r 44.2
2 Barker (SA) 19.9 r 35.7
3 Port Adelaide (SA) 12.9 i 34.5
4 Wakefield (SA) 0.7 o 30.0
5 Sturt (SA) 6.8 i 28.6
6 Kingston (SA) 0.1 o 27.1
7 Mayo (SA) 13.6 r 24.5
8 Boothby (SA) 5.4 o 22.8
9 Hindmarsh (SA) 0.1 i 22.0
10 Makin (SA) 0.9 o 22.0
11 Adelaide (SA) 1.3 i 21.8
  ACT
1 Canberra (ACT) 9.9 i
15.2

2 Fraser (ACT) 13.3 i 12.1

Northern Territory
1 Solomon (NT) 2.8 i 52.4
2 Lingiari (NT) 7.7 r 24.4

In NSW and Vic it seems to be outer-inner seats (somewhere between the capitals' ultra outer suburbs and their CBDs) that have done worst in house price. They're mainly Labor-held.

(Would love to have equivalent data for the three years going into the 2004 election.).

Read George Megalogenis in The Australian.

The end.