Geoff Lambert email Sept 20 2004: Glen Drury

I guess you all know that lff's lead Senate candidate in NSW is Glen Drury, 4-wd drive nut and property developer, who has wangled the world's most amazing preference exchange. He did it before in NSW in 1999 and nearly got in to the LC. They later changed the law to stop him.

But not in the Senate. It seems a near certainty that he will be elected to the 5th spot in the Senate, ahead of either The Greens or Fred Nile, depending on the balance.

The simulation using current polling data and the registered tickets shows that he does this on about 2% of the vote, by gathering up the preferences of up to 20 other groups, none of which will get more than 0.5% of the vote.

The Greens preference flow is absolutely diabolic in NSW, they will need 90% of a quota to be in the race.