Adelaide Advertiser 17 April 2004

Four seats in Labor's sights

By State Political Reporter GREG KELTON
482 words

Copyright 2004 News Ltd. All Rights Reserved

LABOR momentum at a federal level continues to grow, with a new poll showing it can win four key Liberal seats in South Australia.

The Liberal seats under threat are Boothby (held by a margin of 7.4 per cent), Makin (3.8), Hindmarsh (1.1) and Adelaide (0.6). Of the 11 House of Representative seats in SA (one disappeared in the latest redistribution), Labor now holds only three.

An Advertiser poll conducted statewide on Wednesday night puts Labor's first preference vote at 41 per cent, up six percentage points since our last federal poll in December. The Liberal vote in SA has slumped five points to 38 while the Greens on 5 per cent (down one point) remain ahead of the Democrats on 4 per cent (also down one).

If preferences are allocated according to recent elections, the two-party preferred vote for Labor in SA is 53.5 per cent, a 7.5 per cent swing from the 2001 election. The Liberal two-party preferred is 46.5 per cent.

Incumbency is a key factor in marginal seats but Liberal sources admitted yesterday it might no longer hold true for Adelaide, Makin and Boothby, while Hindmarsh, where sitting MP Chris Gallus has decided to quit, now was "definitely a long shot".

Labor sources were playing down the poll, saying they would start getting excited once a series of polls closer to the election showed Labor in front. On the federal leadership of the two major parties, SA voters have put Prime Minister John Howard and Opposition Leader Mark Latham almost neck and neck.

Mr Howard's approval rating with the 500 voters canvassed by The Advertiser is 79 per cent (35 per cent good and 44 per cent fair) with 20 per cent saying he is doing a poor job.

Mr Latham has a 78 per cent rating, with 27 per cent saying he is doing a good job and 51 per cent rating his performance as fair.

Only 14 per cent believe Mr Latham is doing a poor job.

Primary support for the ALP was higher among males (43 per cent) than females (38 per cent) while for the Liberals it was 38 per cent with males and 37 per cent for female voters.

Labor's strongest support is in the 40-54 age group, where 47 per cent of voters said they would give the party their first preference at the election.

The only age group where the Liberals are ahead is in the 55 and over category, where they lead 49 per cent to 36 per cent. In the metropolitan area, Labor's first preference vote is 44 per cent to the Liberals' 34 per cent. In rural areas the Liberal vote jumps to 47 per cent, 17 points ahead of Labor.