Antony Green, October 23

I was rung up by a whole bunch of journalists last night on that Senate story. I finally got the chance to go through the numbers this morning, and I think the reports are completely wrong. I see in the news tonight they are all reporting the Nationals pulling ahead again. Sounds like some rogue numbers last night.

Assuming all votes are ticket votes, then the National Party have been pulling slightly further ahead of Family First at the first key count. This results in the Nationals receiving Family First preferences, putting them ahead of One Nation.

However, the bigger the National-Family First gap, the smaller the National-One Nation gap. But as the Nationals start with twice the vote of Family First and One Nation, and require less below the line votes, I would think the Nationals are actually further ahead on both counts, as not all below the line votes will flow so strongly to Family First and One Nation.

If you only use the ticket votes, the Nationals have no problems winning the spot.

I am also sick of explaining to journalists that in situations like last night, there is no such thing as One Nation pulling ahead of the Nationals. It is only an estimate based on assuming all votes are ticket votes, and we know they are not. So you can’t even say anybody is in the lead, especially if One Nation pull ahead based on the ticket vote assumption.

All very frustrating.

Antony Green