Email from
Peter,
I'm with you, a very odd
bit of analysis by Mr Black. I also think he should also be comparing swing
with Victorian 2PP, not National 2PP. Maybe he'll look extremely prescient on
Monday, but I'd be surprised.
I'll stick to my view that
the Nationals had dreadful results in Gippsland in 1998 and 2001, but results
in the area, at both state and Federal level, have looked much better for them
since.
I think there's another
important point. Prior to the Kennett government's election, vast numbers of
blue collar workers in the LaTrobe valley worked for the state electricity
authority. Since privatisation, they are now mostly self-employed or work for
private industry. Looking at LaTrobe valley voting before the mid 1990s needs
to take account of that.
Antony