Better PM

Newspoll's better PM graph, March 1996 to July 2004

A quickie graph of Newspoll's 'Better PM' ratings from when Kim Beazley took Labor leadership in March '96 to today. Blue line is Howard, red one Beazley/Crean/Latham.

New PM John Howard greatly preferred as PM until late '97, when all his numbers go down the gurgler. Such a fall from grace in first term is unprecedented in an Australian PM, but consensus remains: the plain-speaking Howard is a very special politician with a marvelous connection with 'Middle Australia'.
Howard jumps out of hospital bed inviting country to join him on a new 'tax adventure' - the GST - but everyone stays home and numbers continue to fall. Incumbents nearly always win as 'better PM'; Beazley's beating Howard is not unprecedented, but the regularity in his doing so is. Still, John Howard remains the wiliest parliamentarian ever to walk the earth.
Howard squeaks back in '98 election, so avoids presiding over the first one term federal government since the Great Depression. Naturally, the accolades shower: is there nothing this political phenomenon is not capable of?
(Meanwhile, as the world enjoys its longest recession-free period for generations, governments in comparable countries - UK, NZ, Canada - are getting re-elected with ease.)
Howard remains preferred PM until early 2001, when Beazley again takes lead. (Note that Tampa actually arrives a few polls after Howard has begun a recovery.) Beazley makes inroads by election day, but still loses election, although not, as is commonly thought, in a landslide.
Howard's electoral record now beats Gough Whitlam's. But in conservative-voting Australia, he has really only achieved what every non-Labor federal government has since Gallipolli - a third term. Our country's Wise Men, however, believe otherwise: this is history in the making, and everyone from Paul Kelly to Alan Ramsey shakes their heads in awe. We are truly in the presence of something special. All hail the political colossus. You don't have to like what he does, they tell us, but his astounding skills are beyond doubt.
Crean then takes over the Labor leadership and he is indeed a lemon, continuously delivering dire numbers.
Latham takes over from Crean, and brings preferred PM numbers close to Beazley-esque, but then drops. Latham, you will have heard by now, is also a political phenomenon, a simply astounding communicator - he must be to give The Master a run for his money. Still, unlike Bomber, current Labor leader never quite beats Howard as preferred PM.
Many Australians find both Howard and Latham about as inspiring as hour old dishwater, and consider neither a moving communicator with much interesting to say, but as Mr Kelly might put it, such people 'just don't get it': we are witnessing a fight to the death between two political giants.

Note: points between polls on graphs have equal spacing. Because poll frequency has been increasing, this doesn't match time scale. That is, the second half of the graph in terms of time is larger than the first.

Newspoll's better PM graph, March 1996 to July 2004

A quickie graph of Newspoll's 'Better PM' ratings from when Kim Beazley took Labor leadership in March '96 to today. Blue line is Howard, red one Beazley/Crean/Latham.

Howard squeaks back in '98 election, so avoids presiding over the first one term federal government since the Great Depression. Naturally, the accolades shower: is there nothing this political phenomenon is not capable of?

(Meanwhile, as the world enjoys its longest recession-free period for generations, governments in comparable countries - UK, NZ, Canada - are getting re-elected with ease.)

Howard remains preferred PM until early 2001, when Beazley again takes lead. (Note that Tampa actually arrives a few polls after Howard has begun a recovery.) Beazley makes inroads by election day, but still loses election, although not, as is commonly thought, in a landslide.

Crean then takes over the Labor leadership and he is indeed a lemon, continuously delivering dire numbers.

Many Australians find both Howard and Latham about as inspiring as hour old dishwater, and consider neither a moving communicator with much interesting to say, but as Mr Kelly might put it, such people 'just don't get it': we are witnessing a fight to the death between two political giants.

Note: points between polls on graphs have equal spacing. Because poll frequency has been increasing, this doesn't match time scale. That is, the second half of the graph in terms of time is larger than the first.