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Email prediction from reader Ray Sanderson October 3: Small landslide* to
Labor
Dear Mumble
With all respect to Chris Woolley’s past accuracy in
predicting election outcomes, things are a lot different today from 20 years
ago. I have followed national politics for more than 35 years and have predicted
the winner in every federal election since Gough in 1972. I am prepared to say
(as I did in a letter published in the Oz in mid July) that Howard is a goner.
The voters are much more fragmented now with many more choices through minor
parties and independents so preferences take a greater role. In July, I
predicted a landslide to Labor but Howard’s hand-outs to our self centred
voters will pull that prediction back to a closer finish. In 2001, Howard had
the uncertainties of terrorism after 9/11 to scare the wits out of the punters
as well as a strong Hansonite vote for him. Terrorism is a built-in issue now as
we know it can happen so why worry about. So it’s a small landslide to Labor
for my money!
Best wishes
Ray Sanderson
*Me:
people rarely define what 'landslide' means. It's why Malcolm Mackerras can say
'confidently predict a result between a landslide to the Coalition and a
landslide to Labor' before every election.
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