Median income excluding rural

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published

two decades of Newspolls

state votes at federal elections

Votes and seat
representation
1949 - 2001

Newspoll
preferences

Newspoll &
Morgan graphs

preferential voting

federal election 2001

NSW election 2003

Vic election 2002

Beazley versus Crean

three leaders

Newspoll Opposition leader approval ratings

Newspoll Opposition voting intentions

National seats by median income - excluding "Rural"

Data taken from the Parliament House Website, with AEC socio-demographic classifications and ALP two party preferred vote. (Coalition's is always 100 minus Labor's). See this column.

(Coalition's is always 100 minus Labor's).

As always, Labor red, Coalition blue, independents (with ALP-Coalition 2pp shown) purple.

Once rural seats are extracted, Labor rules in low income Australia. From the bottom up, the first four blue (Coalition-held) entries are all "Provincial", which could be described as half way between metro and rural. In the cities, the ALP completely dominates at the income bottom.

Columns on the right hand side show the swing at 1998 and 2001 elections, and the state-wide swings. These are to Labor, so a positive number means the swing was to the opposition and a negative to the government.

The aggregate national swings were 5 percent to Labor in 1998 and two percent to the Coalition in 2001. Nearly every seat swung to Labor in 1998; nearly every one swung to Coalition in 2001. Broadly, the biggest swings at both elections took place at lower median income seats. The first was predominately about the GST, the second border protection, so these voting trends are not surprising.

But part of the 2001 result can be seen as a correction of the aberration in 1998. On the evidence of 1998, low income seats hated the idea of a GST - western Sydney in particular returned the lowest Coalition two party preferred votes since early seventies. With the "GST referendum" decided, some movement back to the Coalition at the next election was to be expected.

Go to all seats (150) Go to Sydney seats (27)

	Seat	State	Socio Demographic	ALP two party preferred vote %	median household income $	Swing to ALP 1998	State Swing 1998	Swing to ALP 2001	State swing 2001
1	North Sydney	NSW	Inner Metro	36.78	1792	+3.3	+4.3	-0.6	-3.4
2	Bradfield	NSW	Inner Metro	28.84	1759	+2.6	+4.3	+0.1	-3.4
3	Wentworth	NSW	Inner Metro	42.14	1649	+1.5	+4.3	-2.1	-3.4
4	Mitchell	NSW	Outer Metro	28.68	1597	+4.5	+4.3	-2.3	-3.4
5	Kooyong	VIC	Inner Metro	39.06	1593	+2.4	+3.2	+0.5	-1.4
6	Warringah	NSW	Inner Metro	37.34	1572	+2.3	+4.3	+0.0	-3.4
7	Higgins	VIC	Inner Metro	41.61	1570	+1.1	+3.2	+1.2	-1.4
8	Sydney	NSW	Inner Metro	65.04	1517	+3.1	+4.3	-3.4	-3.4
9	Berowra	NSW	Outer Metro	34.35	1488	+4.9	+4.3	-1.8	-3.4
10	Mackellar	NSW	Outer Metro	33.13	1416	+0.9	+4.3	+0.0	-3.4
11	Melbourne Ports	VIC	Inner Metro	55.69	1406	-0.2	+3.2	-0.1	-1.4
12	Hughes	NSW	Outer Metro	39.59	1397	-0.6	+4.3	-4.2	-3.4
13	Goldstein	VIC	Inner Metro	40.52	1385	+2.8	+3.2	-1.3	-1.4
14	Curtin	WA	Inner Metro	36.09	1381	-0.1	+5.5	-0.6	-1.1
15	Canberra	ACT	Inner Metro	59.44	1347	na	na	-0.7	-1.4
16	Ryan	QLD	Outer Metro	41.38	1305	+7.5	+7.2	+0.9	-1.8
17	Fraser	ACT	Inner Metro	62.69	1304	na	na	-2.2	-1.4
18	Bennelong	NSW	Inner Metro	42.29	1300	+4.1	+4.3	-1.9	-3.4
19	Cook	NSW	Inner Metro	36.00	1296	+3.3	+4.3	-5.2	-3.4
20	Lowe	NSW	Inner Metro	53.81	1270	+7.1	+4.3	-1.1	-3.4
21	Menzies	VIC	Outer Metro	41.06	1241	+5.6	+3.2	-3.5	-1.4
22	Brisbane	QLD	Inner Metro	53.13	1208	+3.9	+7.2	-1.5	-1.8
23	Grayndler	NSW	Inner Metro	71.29	1190	+6.0	+4.3	-1.0	-3.4
24	Solomon	NT	Inner Metro	49.91	1182	na	na	na	+1.9
25	Aston	VIC	Outer Metro	43.83	1180	+1.4	+3.2	-2.0	-1.4
26	Jagajaga	VIC	Outer Metro	55.64	1168	+3.2	+3.2	-0.3	-1.4
27	Melbourne	VIC	Inner Metro	70.09	1154	+1.6	+3.2	-1.7	-1.4
28	Kingsford Smith	NSW	Inner Metro	58.90	1146	+3.3	+4.3	-3.7	-3.4
29	Lindsay	NSW	Outer Metro	44.53	1132	+0.3	+4.3	-3.4	-3.4
30	Moore	WA	Outer Metro	43.96	1131	+4.4	+5.5	-0.7	-1.1
31	Tangney	WA	Inner Metro	42.03	1127	+6.0	+5.5	-1.4	-1.1
32	Greenway	NSW	Outer Metro	53.11	1107	+6.6	+4.3	-6.4	-3.4
33	Griffith	QLD	Outer Metro	55.66	1099	+3.9	+7.2	+3.3	-1.8
34	La Trobe	VIC	Outer Metro	46.33	1089	+0.4	+3.2	-2.7	-1.4
35	Parramatta	NSW	Inner Metro	48.85	1080	+2.8	+4.3	-3.5	-3.4
36	Macquarie	NSW	Outer Metro	41.33	1077	+2.3	+4.3	-3.8	-3.4
37	Dickson	QLD	Outer Metro	44.03	1071	+4.0	+7.2	-6.1	-1.8
39	Barton	NSW	Inner Metro	56.02	1067	+5.4	+4.3	-3.9	-3.4
39	Chisholm	VIC	Inner Metro	52.77	1065	+4.7	+3.2	+0.7	-1.4
40	Banks	NSW	Inner Metro	52.89	1065	+5.7	+4.3	-4.3	-3.4
41	Casey	VIC	Outer Metro	42.84	1058	+1.8	+3.2	-2.3	-1.4
42	Deakin	VIC	Outer Metro	48.26	1057	+0.6	+3.2	+0.2	-1.4
43	Werriwa	NSW	Outer Metro	58.49	1031	+6.5	+4.3	-4.7	-3.4
44	Prospect	NSW	Outer Metro	62.81	1019	+5.8	+4.3	-4.1	-3.4
45	Moreton	QLD	Inner Metro	45.79	1011	+5.4	+7.2	-3.6	-1.8
46	Adelaide	SA	Inner Metro	49.78	1011	+2.6	+4.2	+1.0	-1.0
47	Boothby	SA	Outer Metro	42.65	1003	+4.2	+4.2	+0.6	-1.0
48	Bruce	VIC	Outer Metro	55.55	1003	+6.0	+3.2	-1.2	-1.4
49	Cunningham	NSW	Provincial	60.65	1003	+5.3	+4.3	-6.6	-3.4
50	Cowan	WA	Outer Metro	55.51	992	+7.6	+5.5	+2.1	-1.1
51	Lalor	VIC	Outer Metro	65.63	988	+1.3	+3.2	-4.2	-1.4
52	Sturt	SA	Inner Metro	41.82	983	+2.7	+4.2	-0.6	-1.0
53	Isaacs	VIC	Outer Metro	52.81	981	+4.8	+3.2	-3.6	-1.4
54	Bowman	QLD	Outer Metro	51.42	972	+4.2	+7.2	-1.9	-1.8
55	Scullin	VIC	Outer Metro	69.19	970	+1.1	+3.2	-2.6	-1.4
56	Calwell	VIC	Outer Metro	67.73	964	+1.8	+3.2	-1.3	-1.4
57	Herbert	QLD	Provincial	48.38	960	+6.5	+7.2	-1.5	-1.8
58	Lilley	QLD	Inner Metro	54.83	958	+3.5	+7.2	+1.7	-1.8
59	Hotham	VIC	Outer Metro	61.02	951	+3.0	+3.2	-2.6	-1.4
60	Dunkley	VIC	Outer Metro	44.58	948	+1.3	+3.2	-3.4	-1.4
61	Fremantle	WA	Inner Metro	60.67	937	+5.8	+5.5	-1.3	-1.1
62	Makin	SA	Outer Metro	46.24	930	+0.1	+4.2	-3.0	-1.0
63	Fadden	QLD	Outer Metro	37.71	926	10.0	+7.2	-4.7	-1.8
64	Wills	VIC	Inner Metro	69.42	917	-1.3	+3.2	-1.6	-1.4
65	Canning	WA	Outer Metro	49.62	915	+5.2	+5.5	-1.0	-1.1
66	Petrie	QLD	Outer Metro	46.58	912	+7.5	+7.2	-2.6	-1.8
67	Perth	WA	Inner Metro	61.21	909	+6.6	+5.5	-1.4	-1.1
68	Robertson	NSW	Provincial	43.02	908	+1.6	+4.3	-5.0	-3.4
69	Chifley	NSW	Outer Metro	65.29	899	+6.4	+4.3	-6.1	-3.4
70	Hasluck	WA	Outer Metro	51.78	898	+0.0	+5.5	+0.0	-1.1
71	Holt	VIC	Outer Metro	63.32	896	+2.3	+3.2	-1.8	-1.4
72	Corangamite	VIC	Provincial	44.33	894	+3.2	+3.2	-1.2	-1.4
73	Maribyrnong	VIC	Outer Metro	67.38	893	+3.2	+3.2	-4.7	-1.4
74	Swan	WA	Inner Metro	52.04	890	+6.3	+5.5	-0.5	-1.1
75	Stirling	WA	Inner Metro	51.58	888	+4.3	+5.5	+0.2	-1.1
76	Watson	NSW	Inner Metro	67.31	887	+5.8	+4.3	-0.6	-3.4
77	Capricornia	QLD	Provincial	56.86	886	+8.8	+7.2	+1.6	-1.8
78	Pearce	WA	Provincial	43.12	885	+8.3	+5.5	-1.5	-1.1
79	Dobell	NSW	Provincial	49.62	877	+3.3	+4.3	-3.3	-3.4
80	Hindmarsh	SA	Inner Metro	48.14	866	+6.8	+4.2	-0.7	-1.0
81	Batman	VIC	Inner Metro	75.08	864	+5.1	+3.2	-1.3	-1.4
82	Denison	TAS	Inner Metro	64.26	861	+2.7	+5.7	-0.2	+0.4
83	Gellibrand	VIC	Inner Metro	71.78	860	+4.7	+3.2	-4.1	-1.4
84	Throsby	NSW	Provincial	65.10	859	+2.8	+4.3	-7.3	-3.4
85	Rankin	QLD	Outer Metro	56.68	853	+9.1	+7.2	-2.0	-1.8
86	Charlton	NSW	Provincial	56.66	848	+3.7	+4.3	-5.6	-3.4
87	Moncrieff	QLD	Provincial	34.58	845	+7.6	+7.2	-2.6	-1.8
88	Oxley	QLD	Outer Metro	58.14	839	+7.9	+7.2	-0.1	-1.8
89	Blaxland	NSW	Inner Metro	65.21	839	+9.1	+4.3	-6.2	-3.4
90	Groom	QLD	Provincial	34.91	838	+8.3	+7.2	-2.1	-1.8
91	Newcastle	NSW	Provincial	56.91	836	+0.0	+4.3	-5.3	-3.4
92	Reid	NSW	Inner Metro	66.87	827	10.3	+4.3	-5.3	-3.4
93	Kingston	SA	Outer Metro	52.42	825	+2.5	+4.2	+0.9	-1.0
94	Corio	VIC	Provincial	58.70	825	+4.6	+3.2	-2.7	-1.4
95	Franklin	TAS	Outer Metro	58.04	810	+1.9	+5.7	+1.4	+0.4
96	Ballarat	VIC	Provincial	52.73	793	+0.9	+3.2	+5.5	-1.4
97	McPherson	QLD	Provincial	37.45	789	+8.8	+7.2	-4.3	-1.8
98	Shortland	NSW	Provincial	58.78	767	+4.7	+4.3	-3.9	-3.4
99	Bass	TAS	Provincial	52.06	760	+4.6	+5.7	+2.0	+0.4
100	Port Adelaide	SA	Inner Metro	64.65	760	+9.1	+4.2	-1.4	-1.0
101	Brand	WA	Provincial	60.05	752	+11.4	+5.5	-3.4	-1.1
102	Bendigo	VIC	Provincial	53.57	736	+4.4	+3.2	+0.1	-1.4
103	Bonython	SA	Outer Metro	60.42	718	+5.1	+4.2	-3.3	-1.0
104	Fowler	NSW	Outer Metro	71.49	714	+8.1	+4.3	-5.6	-3.4
105	Fisher	QLD	Provincial	37.94	700	+9.6	+7.2	-1.1	-1.8

Go to all seats (150) Go to Sydney seats (27)

Note: some seats had different boundaries in '98

National seats by median income - excluding "Rural"

Data taken from the Parliament House Website, with AEC socio-demographic classifications and ALP two party preferred vote. (Coalition's is always 100 minus Labor's). See this column.

(Coalition's is always 100 minus Labor's).

As always, Labor red, Coalition blue, independents (with ALP-Coalition 2pp shown) purple.

Once rural seats are extracted, Labor rules in low income Australia. From the bottom up, the first four blue (Coalition-held) entries are all "Provincial", which could be described as half way between metro and rural. In the cities, the ALP completely dominates at the income bottom.

Columns on the right hand side show the swing at 1998 and 2001 elections, and the state-wide swings. These are to Labor, so a positive number means the swing was to the opposition and a negative to the government.

Go to all seats (150) Go to Sydney seats (27)

Seat

State

Socio Demographic

ALP two party preferred vote %

median household income $

Swing to ALP 1998

State Swing 1998

Swing to ALP 2001

State swing 2001

1

North Sydney

NSW

Inner Metro

36.78

1792

+3.3

+4.3

-0.6

-3.4

2

Bradfield

NSW

Inner Metro

28.84

1759

+2.6

+4.3

+0.1

-3.4

3

Wentworth

NSW

Inner Metro

42.14

1649

+1.5

+4.3

-2.1

-3.4

4

Mitchell

NSW

Outer Metro

28.68

1597

+4.5

+4.3

-2.3

-3.4

5

Kooyong

VIC

Inner Metro

39.06

1593

+2.4

+3.2

+0.5

-1.4

6

Warringah

NSW

Inner Metro

37.34

1572

+2.3

+4.3

+0.0

-3.4

7

Higgins

VIC

Inner Metro

Socio
Demographic

ALP
two party
preferred
vote %

median
household
income $

Swing
to ALP
1998

State
Swing
1998

Swing
to ALP
2001

State
swing
2001