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NSW election 2003

Federal pendulum

Newspoll
preferences


Newspoll &
Morgan graphs

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mumble.com.au


published

state votes at federal elections

federal election 2001

Vic election 2002

preferential voting

Votes and seat
representation
1949 - 2001

Newspoll and Morgan

What do the polls say?

The first graph shows Newspoll's two party preferred voting intention figures calculated from the first preferences voting ones (see why this calculation is necessary)  since the November 2001 election. The second shows Morgan's.

Newspoll

54

52

50

48

46

Nov '01

Jan '03

The blue line is Coalition's two party preferred vote, red one Labor's. Timeline November 10 2001 election to early February 2003. Hover your mouse over a point to see date of poll and two party result. The first pair of points are the last election. A big government lead followed (this always happens after an election) before the parties settled down to a fairly even tussle. That second big government leap was, of course, after Bali. The contest is once again close by Australian historical standards.

And here's Morgan over the same period:

Morgan

54

52

50

48

46

Nov '01

Jan '03

Hover over any point to see date(s) of survey and the two party numbers.

Morgan, still in many's doghouse after last election's performace, is not backing off. They've once again got the ALP more often than not, and by some substantial amounts. But they too show post election and post-Bali jumps in government support. Once again Morgan is out of step with the others.

Come back for updates.

*It's a little incongruous having Newspoll numbers to the decimal point when the primary votes, from which they're calculated, were rounded to the nearest integer. But because the results are so close, rounding would see much flat lining, so I've decided to leave as is.

external links

Electoral
Commissions
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Qld WA
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Federal
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Antony
Green (ABC)


Crikey

NSW Parl (links)

Adam Carr

Newspoll

Morgan

WA Uni
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