Federal pendulum

elections AT


two decades of Newspolls

state votes at federal elections

Votes and seat
1949 - 2001


Newspoll &
Morgan graphs

preferential voting

federal election 2001

NSW election 2003

Vic election 2002

Nineteen months of Newspolls

Was Kim Beazley a better performing opposition leader than Simon Crean? Below are graphs of Newspoll voting intentions for the first 19 months of  Beazley's first and second terms and Crean's. (Forget the other rubbish about preferred PM and approval ratings. Votes are what count - you know, those things that decide elections)

The three are below. The first pair of data for each is the previous (losing) election. Coalition two party preferred is blue, Labor's is red. Scale is 40 to 60 percent for all three

Beazley's first 19 months of first term

Newly elected Howard government holds huge lead for first year. As this shows, Beazley hits front half way through term (where this graph stops); he pretty well kept it 'til election, where he won vote 51 to 49 but not seats.
See also two decades of Newspoll.


Beazley's first 19 months of second term

A mixed bag, but after 18 months Beazley once again hits front (again, the graph stops here; he kept it up until late August 2001, when a certain Norwegian freighter entered Australian waters ...)
See also two decades of Newspoll.


Crean's first 19 months

Re-elected Howard government gets standard post election lead. From early 2002 until Bali bombs, an equal contest. That big blue leap (and red drop) about half way along the graph is the first poll after Bali. Gap then narrows, opens up again with war. Most recent is 51 to 49.

Notes (1) scales are from 40 to 60 percent for all three. The first graph actually goes off the scale, while the other two live in the 45 to 55 range. (2) Two party preferred calculated from rounded primary support using preference flow from each party at previous election. This can differ from Newspoll's calculations. Read more here

Conclusion? Crean's ratings so far are better than Beazley's first but worse than Beazley's second. However, in both Beazley didn't hit his stride until the second half.