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Nineteen months of NewspollsWas Kim Beazley a better performing opposition leader than Simon Crean? Below are graphs of Newspoll voting intentions for the first 19 months of Beazley's first and second terms and Crean's. (Forget the other rubbish about preferred PM and approval ratings. Votes are what count - you know, those things that decide elections)The three are below. The first pair of data for each is the
previous (losing) election. Coalition two party preferred is blue, Labor's is
red. Scale is 40 to 60 percent for all three
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Beazley's first 19 months of first termNewly
elected Howard government holds huge lead for first year. As this shows,
Beazley hits front half way through term (where this graph stops); he
pretty well kept it 'til election, where he won vote 51
to 49
but not seats. |
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Beazley's first 19 months of second termA mixed
bag, but after 18 months Beazley once again hits front (again, the graph
stops here; he kept it up until late August 2001, when a certain
Norwegian freighter entered Australian waters ...) |
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Crean's first 19 monthsRe-elected Howard government gets standard post election lead. From early 2002 until Bali bombs, an equal contest. That big blue leap (and red drop) about half way along the graph is the first poll after Bali. Gap then narrows, opens up again with war. Most recent is 51 to 49. |
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Notes (1) scales are from 40 to 60 percent for all three. The first graph actually goes off the scale, while the other two live in the 45 to 55 range. (2) Two party preferred calculated from rounded primary support using preference flow from each party at previous election. This can differ from Newspoll's calculations. Read more here Conclusion? Crean's ratings so far are better than Beazley's first but worse than Beazley's second. However, in both Beazley didn't hit his stride until the second half. |
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