Newspoll satisfaction ratings 1985 to September 2005        return home

Further to this Fin Review piece, two graphs below, from 1985 to 1996 and 1996 to 2005. In both, two party preferred voting intentions are at top and net approval ratings below. In first, Labor is in government so the light red line is PM satisfaction and light blue is Opposition leader satisfaction. In the second, Coalition is in power so light blue is PM satisfaction, etc. Dark red 2pp is always Labor, dark blue 2pp always Coalition.

Newspoll, published in The Australian, has data going back to late 1985. I've taken their primary voting numbers and satisfaction/dissatisfaction with Prime Minister and Leaders of Opposition for the whole 20 year period. (About 430 sets of data.) From the primary votes I calculated two party preferred, using my own formula because Newspoll's calculations aren't much chop (and don't exist, outside election campaigns, before 2003.)

I calculated net satisfaction rating - satisfaction minus dissatisfaction - for both PM and leader of the opposition. Data is split in two, the dividing line being the 1996 change of government, so the first graph covers 11 years of Labor governments, the second one nine and a half of (Howard-led) Coalition government.

Graph 1

The graph above, for the period late 1985 to the March 1996 election, covers two Labor PMs and five opposition leaders, counting Howard twice. (Peacock's first run predates this data.) Note Howard I's numbers are always below zero, meaning more dissatisfied than satisfied. Peacock initially gets a slight fillip, but colleagues brag on Four Corners and his honeymoon ends. Hewson, installed after 1990 election, has wonderful approval ratings, and voting ones to match, but both (especially approval) deteriorate after Keating becomes PM. Keating wins in 1993 and his approval jumps up and Hewson's drops. Alexander Downer provides admirable highs and lows, before Howard takes over and returns both reasonably fine approval (although he spends a bit of time below zero, and only really hits modest positives again when the '96 campaign starts) and much more consistently good voting intention. Then wins 1996 election.

Graph 2

Like most newly elected PM/Premiers, Howard begins way ahead, but his doldrums arrive quick-smart. Opposition leader Beazley gets high approval ratings in first term, a little less in second term. After 2001, Howard's approval rises and Crean's deteriorates. But voting intention remains competitive - too close to call, really (but never reported as such in the Oz), at least until Bali bombs, after which Howard rises and Crean drops further. See Latham take the approval - and Labor's vote - up, then crash after the election. (The crash part tends to happen to unsuccessful opposition leaders.) Beazley Mk II actually took net approval down below Latham's worst (but has since recovered to be above), but Labor's voting intentions improved. Labor ahead slightly in last two polls.

Notes

With increased polling in recent years, the time-line of these graphs are not uniform; the (usually) three year gaps between elections take up more space on recent parts of the graphs because they contain more sets of data.

Formula is ALP 2pp= ALP primary vote + 0.6 x Democrat vote + 0.75x Green vote + 0.45x One Nation vote + 0.55 x others. Obviously it's not perfect, and a little heroic in assumptions of consistent preference flow over 20 years (ideally I would have gone to each election and looked at individual minor party preference flows and applied them over the next term), but overall it works reasonably well applied to actual election results. It's certainly better than just distributing them as they flowed in total at the last election, which is what Newspoll does now, or asking for second preferences only, which they did last year.

As always, care must be taken with calculations from Newspoll's rounded numbers.

Here are average net satisfaction ratings referred to in article.

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