... continued from left
The Coalition has a half dozen NSW seats with
margins under 2 percent; Labor's most marginal 2.9%.
On the pendulum's right, Banks
and Greenway
swung big to the Coalition at the last poll and must be seen as possible Liberal
gains; maybe even Barton.
On the other side, all marginal Coalition seats up to Page
(2.8)
- and maybe even Cowper (4.7)
- are gettable for the ALP if they can just lift their support in the largest
state.
Shadow economic policy seems designed for the citizens of Lindsay
(5.5%) and Macarthur
(7.0%) - the relatively prosperous outer suburbs - but that's the hard road
to victory, a pot not likely to boil this side of a Labor landslide. (See the
Mumble policy on mixed metaphors)
Even Robertson,
on 7%, is a better prospect than the outer suburban four wheel drivers. It was safe Labor from 1969
to 1996 and, unlike neighbouring Dobell,
the change of status can't be blamed on redistributions.
In Paul Keating's surprise 1993 win, New South Wales posted a near record
Labor two party preferred vote of 54.4 percent,
translating into 33 seats out of 50.
It's been downhill from there, and in
2001 a derisory 48.3 percent in the once crown jewel gave the ALP 20 seats out of 50.
(Coalition 28, Independent 2;
since then Labor lost Cunningham to the
Greens).
A repeat of those 1993 NSW numbers would have produced a
Beazley Prime Ministership at the last two elections. And if current representation from the biggest state
was transposed back a decade, 1993 would have been a Hewson win.
Click any seat