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Federal pendulum

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published

two decades of Newspolls

state votes at federal elections

Votes and seat
representation
1949 - 2001

Newspoll
preferences


Newspoll &
Morgan graphs

preferential voting

federal election 2001

NSW election 2003


Vic election 2002

Beazley versus Crean

Newspoll Opposition leader approval ratings

Newspoll Opposition voting intentions

The AEC puts each seat into a geo-category. See key at right in pendulum. 

go to
rural

Total seats in notional parliament = 149 (down 1), comprising Coalition 82, Independents 3, Green 1 and Labor 63 (down 1).

This is the first draft post distribution pendulum. Labor seats on right, Coalition left. Blue is Liberal; brown is National. There are three Independents (orange) whose two party preferred votes put them on Coalition side. 

On the Labor side is Cunningham, held by the Greens since a 2001 by-election. For each seat, the margin, state and AEC designated geographic category are shown. For key to latter, see top of pendulum.

There are today 150 members of the House of Representatives. The next parliament will have 149. These are all shown above, with notional margins. There are two new seats:  Gorton (Vic) and Bonner (Qld) both notionally Labor by 20.2% and 1.9% respectively. Lingiari and Solomon have once again been amalgamated to become Northern Territory. Bonython (SA) and Burke (Vic) have both been abolished.

Numbers in current parliament are: Coalition 82; Labor 64; Independents 3; Green 1. Notional new numbers are Coalition: 82; Labor 63; Independents 3; Green 1. Bowman, McMillan and Wakefield have notionally changed hands.

If next election is competitive, the regions will likely decide it. Go to rural pendulum.

 

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