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Federal pendulum

Federal results by two party preferred

Lemmings!

email:
elections AT
mumble.com.au

published

two decades of Newspolls

state votes at federal elections

Votes and seat
representation
1949 - 2001

Newspoll
preferences


Newspoll &
Morgan graphs

preferential voting

federal election 2001

NSW election 2003


Vic election 2002

Beazley versus Crean

Newspoll Opposition leader approval ratings

Newspoll Opposition voting intentions

Vote and House seat representation 1949 - 2001

In single member electorates, such as Australia's, seat majorities grow exponentially as the vote majority grows. That is, for each extra percent of the vote over 50, a party can expect more than that in seats. 

The graph shows Coalition and Labor two party preferred vote percentages at all elections since 1949 - blue and red lines respectively, with small squares at election points. Two other lines, same colours for each party but fuzzier with triangles at elections, show the proportion of house of reps seats won.

70%


60%


50%


40%


30%

Hovering the mouse over any part of a line gives date and vote and seat data.

It reminds us that all the big wins belong to the Coalition, most recent being Howard's defeat of Keating in 1996. 

Harold Holt's 1966 win had the biggest vote majority, but Malcolm Fraser had the biggest seat ones in 1975 and 1977. Note also 1954, 1961, 1969, 1990 and 1998 when the winner of the vote lost the election.

See also this table.

external links
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Electoral
Commissions
Federal
NSW
    Vic 
Qld WA SA
 
Tas ACT NT

Parliaments
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NSW
    Vic 
Qld WA SA
 
Tas ACT NT

Australian Constitution

Democratic Audit

Nicholson cartoons

Newspoll

Morgan

Poll bludger

WA Uni
election database