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Published in Crikey, May 16 2007
Peter
Brent from Mumble
Politics writes:
Last
week’s Galaxy poll, which found Maxine McKew leading
the Prime Minister in his seat of Bennelong 52 to 48 was generally interpreted
as great news for Labor and bad for John Howard. In fact it was -- inasmuch as
you can take anything from an individual poll -- the opposite.
Since
January, published opinion polls have been conducted nationally and in all sorts
of places, for example in Adelaide marginals and in Queensland. They have all
shown pretty much the same thing: a swing to Labor of about ten points or more
on the 2004 result. This week’s Newspoll put the swing at 12. Probably if
someone polled the Treasurer’s seat of Higgins -- margin 9% -- right now they
would find him losing.
But Bennelong, according to Galaxy, registered just a six percent improvement on
the 2004 Labor vote of 46. Compare that with the Crikey/Morgan
poll from February, before McKew’s candidacy was announced, which had
Labor ahead in Bennelong 55 to 45.
Rudd will almost certainly not get 57 to 43 or anything like it at the election.
His numbers will head earthwards before then, and for McKew to have a chance in
Bennelong, her support in these inflated days needs to be better.
One of the enduring myths of politics sees "famous" or
"talented" people flying in to win marginal seats. The record suggests
the opposite, that celebrities annoy at least as many people as they excite.
Personal votes are built up by incumbents
The value of a McKew -- or a Peter Garrett, Malcolm Turnbull, Greg Combet or
Andrew Robb – lies is what they bring to the team once they’re elected.
If Labor had really wanted to knock Howard off in Bennelong, they shouldn’t
have put their intentions up in lights. Instead, they could have plonked Maxine
in uber-safe Fowler, and put on the streets of Ryde someone with lower
profile but energy and shoe leather to burn.
Softly, softly, catchee monkey. |