From Crikey 17 August 2007

12. Voters and baseball bats – in Queensland and elsewhere

Peter Brent from Mumble Elections writes:

Will the Queensland local council kerfuffle cost Kevin Rudd seats in Queensland? Maybe. But it might cost John Howard seats elsewhere.

It makes strategic sense for the Coalition to stir things up in Queensland. With 29 seats, it is the third largest State (after NSW and Victoria). It’s our "Texas", a large state with a small state mentality – that is, it’s parochial. This was one reason for a Kevin Rudd leadership.

But it is also a deeply conservative, and even during the pre-Bjelke-Petersen days when it often elected state Labor governments, it would not touch the federal party with a barge-poll.

The last time Labor got a (bare) two-party preferred majority there was 1990, before then 1961, before then World War II. On the other hand the Coalition has topped 60% in the State a couple of times during that time.

So ideas about Labor thumping home in Queensland in 2007 are far-fetched, and probably the most they could hope for, even in a landslide, would be about half of the seats on offer. This would more than double their current six.

But there may be a parallel between Queensland in 2007 and Victoria in 1996. Howard’s win eleven years ago was huge, but it wasn’t as massive, or record-setting, as it was generally depicted. The one hold-out state was Victoria.

While the rest of the country swung to the Coalition by about six percent, Victoria went by only one and a half, leaving Paul Keating on a slight two-party preferred majority in the state. The Coalition took only three extra Victorian seats compared with 12 in NSW and 11 in Qld.

And why was Victoria so reticent to go with the flow in 1996? These things are largely unknowable, but part of the reason must have been the Kennett government, which while remaining popular was doing unpopular things. In particular, it was administering harsh industrial relations medicine, and the Keating government had legislated to allow some workers to move to the federal system.

The comparison is limited – for one thing, the 1996 election wasn’t close. But if it had been, Victoria may have saved the government. As it was, the State kept the result in landslide – rather than annihilation – territory.

But nothing can be taken in isolation. Opinion polls today indicate many people who normally vote Liberal are at least considering supporting Labor for the first time. They are likely to have rather conservative ideas about how governments should behave.

Howard may hope that he wins support in Queensland, but what if the unedifying manner in which he does it backfires in the other states? There are 121 electorates there.