From Crikey 24 September 2007
9. Mixing the polls: Monday edition
Peter
Brent from Mumble
Elections writes:
Today's Mumble poll-mix contains some good news for the Coalition - relatively speaking. It averages the three polls from the last fortnight - a Newspoll, a Morgan and today's Galaxy - giving greater weight to the most recent.
Two polls from the weekend of 8-9 September, both shockers for the government, have dropped into the previous fortnight's mix to join the famous "59 to 41" Newspoll. In addition, my estimates of two party preferred support of the three recent polls put the contest a little closer than the pollsters do.
This is not as presumptuous as it might sound, because each of the three arrives at two party preferred support by applying a formula to primary votes, as I do.
Today's poll-mix comes in at 55 to 45 to Labor. Graph below.
So good news for the government in Labor's lead being cut to its second lowest level since Kevin Rudd took over the leadership. The bad news: John Howard still appears headed for a bigger electoral wipe-out than Paul Keating's in 1996. More nuts and bolts here.
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