From Crikey 23 October 2007 (early edition)
Peter Brent from Mumble Politics writes:
Anyone who needed reminding of the power of opinion polls should have watched ABC television shows Insiders on Sunday and Lateline last night.
When Insiders went to air, the most recent surveys had the government closing the gap in the first week of the campaign, and this was a sentiment unanimously reflected by the panel. The Coalition had had a fine first week, they agreed, hitting their tactical mark and wrong-footing the Labor opposition.
But last night’s Lateline panel, with Newspoll’s new 58 to 42 recently at hand, was not only downbeat about the Coalition’s election chances but could pinpoint the reasons. Andrew Bolt (who had also been on Insiders ) explained that Labor’s response on Friday to the government’s tax plan had been not only “clever”, but “a masterstroke”. Gerard Henderson, grumpy with Liberal strategists, was “not certain [they] are completely on their game at the moment.”
Such is the power of one survey. With many more to go, it may be a bumpy ride.
The last pair of numbers in the above poll-mix, 55.5 to 44.5, crunches the four polls taken since the campaign began. Newspoll is weighted most heavily because it was most taken most recently and had, at 1706, easily the largest sample. Two party preferreds are my estimates from pollsters’ primary support.
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