From Crikey
14 November 2007
Peter
Brent from Mumble
Politics writes:
Heard any
good election predictions lately? Most pundits have been playing it safe: Labor
is favoured to win, they say, but it could go either way. This is of course
reasonable, no-one wants to look silly if they're wildly wrong.
As well,
anyone who has dealt with media outfits during a campaign knows that all media
favor a hung parliament scenario; it just makes for a better story.
The
Sunday Age's Jason Koutsoukis recently revisited
pundits' calls before the 1996 election.
The general sentiment back then was similar to today's: yes, Howard would
probably win, but plenty were not sensing a "strong mood for change",
and instead believed it would come down to "a seat or two". Malcolm
Mackerras was almost alone in predicting a big result.
This
election, Malcolm is going
for a 28-seat Labor majority.
I'm
nudging Malcolm up to a 30-seat majority, which would mean Labor holding 90 out
of 150 seats. How might those seats fall state by state? Here's a possible
combination (all numbers post-redistributions, ie "notional"):
New
South Wales: Labor to net nine seats, so increasing their tally from
21 to 30 out of 49. Proportionally, this would be larger than the 24 out of 43
at Bob Hawke's 1983 win, but below the 1993 high water mark of 33 out of 50. [result: gain of 7]
Victoria:
a three seat gain, meaning they end up with 22 out of 37. This would be less
than their 1983 result (23 out of 33) but similar to 1987 (25 out of 39). [result: gain of 2]
Queensland:
a 10 seat gain for Labor. Don't laugh, it would still only take them to 16 out
of 29 - a little over half the seats. In 1990 they got 15 out of 24 Queensland
seats with only 50.2 of the two party preferred vote. [Result: 9 seat gain.]
Western Australia: two (net) extra seats for Labor, taking
them to seven out of 15. [result: one seat net loss.]
South Australia: three seat gain to Labor, taking them to six
out of 11. [result: 3 seat gain.]
Tasmania: two seat gain, so Labor holds five out of five, as
they did from 1998 to 2004. [result: 2 seat gain]
ACT and Northern Territory: one extra seat, Solomon (NT). [result: as predicted.]
Which
actual seats would fall? That's too difficult. On the experience of past
elections, a national swing of, say, seven percent would probably include some
seat components about twice that size, with others, perhaps, moving a little to
the government. And if those double digit swings are in the right electorates -
prepare for the unexpected.
That seven percent swing would put Labor on about 54 to 46 two party preferred,
and plotting it against the Mackerras pendulum also takes you to the same
result: about a 30-seat gain. |