From Crikey 23 November 2007
Poll mix
The two stars of 2004
are squabbling.
This morning’s
Galaxy poll would give butterflies to Labor fans, and put a spring in the step
of government ones. The pollster has moved two points towards the government
from its last survey, to give 52 to 48. If it’s a “trend”,
... who knows?
Nielsen, on the other
hand, moved two points towards Labor, 57 to 43, which would be the biggest win
for any side since 1943.
There are two other
polls to digest this morning, a second Nielsen - an online one - and a Morgan
telephone survey.
Nielsen and Galaxy
were the two pollsters whose final surveys in the 2004 campaign were closest to
the mark. While the others sat around 50 50, Nielsen gave 54 to 46 and Galaxy 52
to 48. The election result was 52.8 to 47.2
But today they
can’t agree, and the most sensible thing we can do is split the difference,
which about comes to Morgan’s 54.5 to 45.5.
Poll-mix below, from
the beginning of the campaign
All eyes on Newspoll
tomorrow.
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