mumble



WWW
 
mumble

home

poll-mix

2007 election links

about

  email: elect AT
mumble.com.au

seat 2pp graphs '07

Seats to watch!

Federal pendulum (old)

margins since 1983

Historical results

Margins 1949  2001

See the lemmings!

two decades of Newspolls

state votes at federal elections

Votes and seat
representation
1949 - 2001

Newspoll
preferences


Newspoll &
Morgan graphs

preferential voting

Newspoll Opposition leader approval ratings

Newspoll Opposition voting intentions

 

 

Electorate graphs adjusting for redistributions

Electorate boundaries often change with redistributions. Over two decades they may change substantially.

To calculate how a particular seat as it is constituted today would have voted in, say, 1984, would ideally involve going back and adding up all votes per polling place.

This would be very hard to do.

A second best option is to, in each electorate, start with the notional two party preferred vote today, and successively subtract the swing at each previous election. These swings are calculated (by the AEC or others) from estimated notional two party preferred votes before elections, and actual votes afterwards.

This is what I do. It's not as good as going back and recounting votes, but it is a second best option.

external links
these open new windows

Electoral Commissions
Federal
NSW
    Vic 
Qld WA SA
 
Tas ACT NT
ECA


Parliaments
Federal
NSW
    Vic 
Qld WA SA
 
Tas ACT NT

Electoral

Antony Green (ABC)
Adam Carr
Bullring
Crikey 
Simon Jackman  
Oz politics
Poll bludger
Possums Politics
Upper House

Other

Enrolling the People
Crikey blog
Piping Shrike
Andrew Leigh
Rick Hasen (US)
Oxfam Shop
Australian Constitution
Democratic Audit
Nicholson cartoons
 -
animations
Online opinion
Morgan

WA Uni
election database

Distance Learning