Email from reader David Walsh 25 August 2008

Peter,

I just want to quibble with your brief summary of the 1960 election. It actually doesn't sit between 2000 and 2004 in terms of anything.

In terms of popular vote, 1960 was the closest of the three. Kennedy had a margin of 0.2% compared to Gore's 0.5% in 2000 and Bush's 1.5% in 2004.

In terms of the electorate college, 1960 was the most lopsided of the three. Bush 271 Gore 267. Bush 286 Kerry 252. Kennedy 303 Nixon 220. Note that Kennedy still would have had an electoral college majority without Illinois's 27 EVs, which punctures the Daley myth.

In addition, of elections since, 1976 was also a closer electoral college election. Carter 297 Ford 240. Even though Carter won the popular vote by 2%.

(Stats: uselectionatlas.org)

As for Obama, it may be that his skin colour is holding him back from how a Democratic candidate ought to be fairing. Nonetheless, he remains competitive and even slightly ahead in the polls. I don't subscribe to the so-called "Bradley effect" - which is nothing more than a cheap explanation to explain one candidate underperforming the polls on election day, rather than anything that's been proven true for black candidates in general - so I see no reason why Obama shouldn't be competitive on election day.

David