Seat bets taken on NSW election (posted March 19)                     home

About a week ago I went through Centrebet's seats and backed the Coalition in most at $5 a piece.  Then yesterday (March 18) I returned and found the seats where the odds for a Coalition win had increased (surprisingly - given that overall odds have blown out since March 10 - only about half the electorates) and threw another $5 each on the fire. (And I backed Chris Hartcher in Terrigal again.) 

You can see below. There's no great moral here, just in case you're interested. As you know, I expect the Coalition will make some gains.

NSW seat bets taken March 10

New South Wales State Election - Legislative Assembly Seats - TWEED - PROVEST, Geoff (The Nationals)   Win 1.95 5.00 9.75
New South Wales State Election - Legislative Assembly Seats - TERRIGAL - HARTCHER, Chris (Liberal)   Win 1.55 5.00 7.75
New South Wales State Election - Legislative Assembly Seats - TAMWORTH - DRAPER, Peter (Independent)   Win 1.96 5.00 9.80
New South Wales State Election - Legislative Assembly Seats - PORT STEPHENS - BAUMANN, Craig (Liberal)   Win 2.15 5.00 10.75
New South Wales State Election - Legislative Assembly Seats - PITTWATER - McTAGGART, Alex (Independent)   Win 2.70 5.00 13.50
New South Wales State Election - Legislative Assembly Seats - PENRITH - HITCHEN, Tricia (Liberal)   Win 2.60 5.00 13.00
New South Wales State Election - Legislative Assembly Seats - MURRAY-DARLING - WILLIAMS, John (The Nationals)   Win 2.05 5.00 10.25
New South Wales State Election - Legislative Assembly Seats - MONARO - MADEW, David (The Nationals)   Win 2.40 5.00 12.00
New South Wales State Election - Legislative Assembly Seats - MANLY - BARR, David (Independent)   Win 1.83 5.00 9.15
New South Wales State Election - Legislative Assembly Seats - KIAMA - SUDMALIS, Ann (Liberal)   Win 4.80 5.00 24.00
New South Wales State Election - Legislative Assembly Seats - GOSFORD - HOLSTEIN, Chris (Liberal)   Win 4.35 5.00 21.75
New South Wales State Election - Legislative Assembly Seats - DUBBO - MATTHEWS, Greg (The Nationals)   Win 2.20 5.00 11.00
New South Wales State Election - Legislative Assembly Seats - DRUMMOYNE - LONG, Greg (Liberal)   Win 3.40 5.00 17.00
New South Wales State Election - Legislative Assembly Seats - CAMDEN - PATTERSON, Chris (Liberal)   Win 2.25 5.00 11.25

NSW seat bets taken March 18

New South Wales State Election - Legislative Assembly Seats - TWEED - PROVEST, Geoff (The Nationals)   Win 1.95 5.00 9.75
New South Wales State Election - Legislative Assembly Seats - TERRIGAL - HARTCHER, Chris (Liberal)   Win 1.47 5.00 7.35
New South Wales State Election - Legislative Assembly Seats - PENRITH - HITCHEN, Tricia (Liberal)   Win 2.90 5.00 14.50
New South Wales State Election - Legislative Assembly Seats - MONARO - MADEW, David (The Nationals)   Win 2.85 5.00 14.25
New South Wales State Election - Legislative Assembly Seats - KIAMA - SUDMALIS, Ann (Liberal)   Win 6.00 5.00 30.00
New South Wales State Election - Legislative Assembly Seats - GOSFORD - HOLSTEIN, Chris (Liberal)   Win 5.25 5.00 26.25
New South Wales State Election - Legislative Assembly Seats - DUBBO - MATTHEWS, Greg (The Nationals)   Win 2.55 5.00 12.75
New South Wales State Election - Legislative Assembly Seats - DRUMMOYNE - LONG, Greg (Liberal)   Win 4.75 5.00 23.75

Also March 18, on these two independents in Murray-Darling, for no particular reason

New South Wales State Election - Legislative Assembly Seats - MURRAY-DARLING - KENNEDY, Tom (Independent)   Win 51.00 2.00 102.00
New South Wales State Election - Legislative Assembly Seats - MURRAY-DARLING - PAGE, Ron (Independent)   Win 34.00 2.00 68.0

As of March 19, I still think it will be closer than most expect. Given that most are expecting a wipe-out, this leaves me plenty of wriggle-room.

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