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Federal pendulum

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published

two decades of Newspolls

state votes at federal elections

Votes and seat
representation
1949 - 2001

Newspoll
preferences


Newspoll &
Morgan graphs

preferential voting

federal election 2001

NSW election 2003


Vic election 2002

Beazley versus Crean

Newspoll Opposition leader approval ratings

Newspoll Opposition voting intentions

Opposition leaders since 1985 ranked by net approval ratings

go straight to table                                                            go to leaders ranked by voting intention

Below is a table of all Newspolls ranked on opposition leader ratings, which is satisfaction rating minus dissatisfaction rating, from Nov 1985 to June 2003. Leaders are colour-coded; John Howard Marks I ('80s) and II ('90s) are differentiated in this respect.

The columns containing numbers are: Net Approval rating, Satisfaction, Dissatisfaction and opposition's two party preferred vote at that same survey. (Government's would be 100 minus opposition's)

Notice the rollercoaster Alexander Downer leadership both tops and tails this list. Beazley figures predominately at the top, Crean and Andrew Peacock at the bottom. Hewson, like Downer, is scattered throughout. Many of Beazley's high ratings occurred in the honeymoon period of the first months of the Howard government, so two party preferred votes are low.

Notice also that, while some correlation exists between satisfaction and voting intentions, it is by no mean absolute. Kim Beazley's high approval during Howard's early months (second from top) goes with a vote of 41%

Federal Opposition Leaders Newspoll net approval ratings '85 - '03

Opposition
Leader

Poll Date

Net
Approval

Satis-
fied

Dissat-
isfied

Opp'n
2Party
Pref %

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
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127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
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194
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205
206
207
208
209
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211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374

Alexander Downer
Kim Beazley
Alexander Downer
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
John Hewson
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
John Hewson
Kim Beazley
John Hewson
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
John Hewson
John Hewson
John Hewson
Alexander Downer
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Alexander Downer
John Howard
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
John Hewson
John Howard
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
John Hewson
John Hewson
John Hewson
John Howard
John Howard
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
John Hewson
John Hewson
Alexander Downer
Kim Beazley
John Howard
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
John Hewson
John Howard
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
John Hewson
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
John Hewson
John Howard
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
John Howard
John Howard
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
John Howard
John Howard
John Howard
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
John Hewson
John Howard
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
John Hewson
John Hewson
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Simon Crean
John Hewson
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Simon Crean
John Howard

John Hewson
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
John Howard
John Howard
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
John Howard
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
John Hewson
John Hewson
John Howard
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
John Howard
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Simon Crean
Simon Crean
Simon Crean
Simon Crean
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Simon Crean
Simon Crean
John Howard
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Simon Crean
John Howard
John Howard
John Howard
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
John Hewson
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Simon Crean
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Simon Crean
Simon Crean
John Hewson
John Hewson
John Howard
John Howard
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
John Hewson
John Howard
John Howard
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
John Howard
John Hewson
John Hewson
Alexander Downer
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Simon Crean
John Hewson
John Hewson
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
John Howard
John Hewson
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Simon Crean
Simon Crean
John Hewson
John Hewson
John Hewson
John Hewson
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Simon Crean
John Hewson
Alexander Downer
John Howard
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Simon Crean
John Howard
John Hewson
John Hewson
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Kim Beazley
Simon Crean
Simon Crean
John Howard
John Hewson
John Hewson
John Hewson
John Howard
Kim Beazley
Simon Crean
Simon Crean
John Howard
John Howard
John Howard
John Hewson
John Hewson
John Hewson
Simon Crean
Simon Crean
John Howard
John Howard
Kim Beazley
Simon Crean
John Hewson
Kim Beazley
John Howard
John Hewson
John Hewson
John Howard
John Howard
John Howard
John Howard
John Hewson
John Hewson
Simon Crean
John Howard
John Hewson
Simon Crean
John Hewson
John Howard
Andrew Peacock
John Hewson
John Hewson
John Howard
John Howard
John Hewson
John Hewson
John Hewson
John Howard
Andrew Peacock
John Hewson
John Howard
John Howard
John Howard
John Hewson
Simon Crean
John Howard
John Hewson
John Hewson
John Hewson
John Hewson
John Howard
John Howard
John Howard
John Hewson
John Hewson
John Hewson
John Howard
John Howard
John Howard
John Howard
Simon Crean
John Howard
John Howard
Andrew Peacock
John Hewson
Simon Crean
John Howard
John Hewson
John Hewson
John Howard
John Howard
Andrew Peacock
Andrew Peacock
Andrew Peacock
John Hewson
John Howard
John Howard
John Hewson
John Hewson
John Hewson
John Howard
John Howard
John Howard
Andrew Peacock
John Hewson
John Howard
John Howard
John Hewson
Alexander Downer
John Howard
John Hewson
Simon Crean
John Howard
John Howard
John Howard
Andrew Peacock
John Hewson
John Hewson
Simon Crean
John Howard
John Howard
John Howard
John Hewson
John Hewson
Alexander Downer
John Howard
John Hewson
Alexander Downer
Alexander Downer
Simon Crean
Simon Crean
Andrew Peacock
Alexander Downer
Andrew Peacock
Andrew Peacock
John Hewson
Andrew Peacock
Alexander Downer
Simon Crean
Alexander Downer
Simon Crean
Alexander Downer
Andrew Peacock
Alexander Downer
John Hewson
Andrew Peacock
Alexander Downer
Alexander Downer

Jul 8-10 1994
May 10-12 1996
Jul 22-24 1994
Oct 30 - 1 Nov 1998
Feb 13-15 1998
Jan 17-19 1992
May 24-26 1996
Oct 16-18 1998
Sep 24-26 1999
Jun 1-3 & 15-17 1990
Nov 5-7 1999
Sep 7-9, 14-16 & 21-23 1990
April 12-14 1996
April 26-28 1996
Jun 14-16 1996
May 4-6 & 18-20 1990
Aug 10-12 & 24-26 1990
Nov 30 - 1-2 & 7-9 Dec 1990
Jun 24-26 1994
Jul 12-14 1996
Nov 13-15 1998
Jun 10-12 1994
Feb 10-12 1995
Jul 26-28 1996
Feb 27 - 1 Mar 1998
Oct 5-7, 19-21 & 26-28 1990
Mar 10-12 1995
Mar 29-31 1996
Jan 15-17 1999
Jun 29-30, Jul 1, 13-15 & 27-29 1990
Nov 29-30 & 1, 6-8 Dec 1991
Jan 31 - 2 Feb 1992
Feb 24-26 1995
April 7-9 1995
Aug 9-11 1996
Jan 30 - 1 Feb 1998
Feb 12-14 1999
Sep 10-12 1999
Nov 9-11, 16-18 & 23-25 1990
Feb 1-3, 15-17 & 22-24 1991
May 27-29 1994
Feb 26-28 1999
Mar 24-26 1995
Jan 29-31 1999
Oct 22-24 1999
Nov 22-24 1991
May 5-7 1995
Jun 28-30 1996
Sep 6-8 1996
Sep 20-22 1996
Sep 30 - Oct 1 1998
Dec 11-13 1998
April 30 - May 2 1999
Dec 3-5 1999
Oct 19-21 2001
Mar 1-3 & 15-17 1991
Jan 16-18 1998
Nov 19-21 1999
Jan 21-23 2000
Jul 12-14 & 26-28 1991
30 Jun-2 Jul 1995
Nov 21-23 1997
April 9-11 1999
Dec 17-19 1999
May 19-21 1995
Aug 25-27 1995
Dec 5-7 1997
Dec 12-14 1997
Nov 27-29 1998
Jul 16-18 1999
April 21-23 1995
Jun 2-4 1995
Sep 8-10 1995
Nov 22-24 1996
Feb 28 - 2 Mar 1997
Sep 11-13 1998
Sep 25-27 1998
Mar 12-14 1999
Feb 28-29 & 1 Mar 1992
Jul 28-30 1995
Oct 24-26 1997
Mar 13-15 1998
Nov 2-4 2001
Aug 9-11 & 23-25 1991
Feb 14-16 1992
Aug 23-25 1996
Oct 11-13 1996
Jul 25-27 1997
Sep 18-20 1998
May 14-16 1999
Jul 2-4 1999
Oct 8-10 1999
Feb 22-24 2002
May 3-5 & 17-19 1991
Jan 31 - 2 Feb 1997
Mar 14-16 1997
May 17-19 2002
Nov 15-17 1985
Mar 27-29 1992
Nov 8-10 1996
Dec 6-8 1996
May 16-18 1997
Aug 8-10 1997
Nov 7-9 1997
Mar 26-28 1999
Aug 27-29 1999
Feb 9-11 1996
Feb 28-29 1996
Feb 14-16 1997
Oct 10-12 1997
Aug 7-9 1998
Aug 14-16 1998
Sep 4-6 1998
Aug 13-15 1999
Feb 4-6 2000
Jun 30- 2 Jul 2000
Aug 11-13 1995
Jan 17-19 1997
Sep 26-28 1997
Mar 27-29 1998
Jul 30 - Aug 1 1999
April 5-7 & 19-21 1991
Mar 13-15 1992
Jun 16-18 1995
Dec 13-15 1996
Sep 5-7 1997
Jul 10-12 1998
Jul 14-16 1995
Jun 13-15 1997
Aug 28-30 1998
May 28-30 1999
May 12-14 2000
Dec 14-16 2001
Jan 18-20 2002
April 19-21 2002
Oct 18-20 2002
April 4-6 1997
May 2-4 1997
April 17-19 1998
Jun 12-14 1998
Jul 24-26 1998
Jun 18-20 1999
Sep 22-24 2000
Oct 6-8 2000
Nov 7-8 2001
Feb 8-10 2002
Mar 8-10 2002
Feb 2-4 1996
May 9-11 1997
May 29-31 1998
May 26-28 2000
Mar 22-24 2002
Sep 22-24 1995
Jan 19-21 1996
Feb 16-18 1996
Sep 19-21 1997
May 1-3 1998
May 15-17 1998
Feb 18-20 2000
Sep 6-8, 20-22 & 27-29 1991
Oct 25-27 1996
Jun 27-29 1997
Jul 11-13 1997
April 28-30 2000
Jul 13-15 2001
Oct 26-28 2001
April 5-7 2002
April 18-20 1997
April 14-16 2000
Jun 16-18 2000
Nov 3-5 2000
Dec 15-17 2000
May 3-5 2002
May 31 - 2 Jun 2002
Jun 14-16 & 28-30 1991
April 10-12 1992
Oct 6-8 1995
Oct 20-22 1995
Aug 22-24 1997
Jul 14-16 2000
Aug 11-13 2000
Oct 20-22 2000
April 20-22 2001
Aug 10-12 2001
Mar 10-11 1993
Nov 10-12 1995
Dec 8-10 1995
May 30-1 Jun 1997
Jun 26-28 1998
Mar 31 - April 2 2000
Mar 23-25 2001
Jul 31, Aug 1-2 & 21-23 1987
May 1-3 1992
Oct 9-11 1992
Aug 19-21 1994
Sep 8-10 2000
Oct 5-7 2001
Sep 27-29 2002
Oct 11-13 & 18-20 1991
May 29-31 1992
Mar 17-19 2000
Jan 19-21 2001
Feb 23-25 2001
Jun 29-1 Jul 2001
Oct 2-4 & 16-18 1987
Mar 5-7 1993
Mar 3-5 2000
Aug 25-27 2000
Dec 1-3 2000
Feb 9-11 2001
May 25-27 2001
Aug 30 - 1 Sep 2002
Sep 13-15 2002
Nov 8-10 & 15-17 1991
May 15-17 1992
Aug 21-23 1992
Feb 19-21 1993
Nov 17-19 2000
May 4-6 2001
May 18-20 2001
Jun 1-3 2001
Oct 12-14 2001
Jul 19-21 2002
Aug 20-22 1993
Aug 5-7 1994
Feb 23-25 1996
Jun 15-17 2001
Jul 27-29 2001
Aug 16-18 2002
Sep 18-20 1987
Jun 26-28 1992
Feb 12-14 1993
Jul 28-30 2000
Mar 9-11 2001
Aug 31-2 Sep 2001
Aug 24-26 2001
Jul 5-7 2002
Nov 29-1 Dec 2002
Oct 30, 31 - Nov 1 & 6-8 1987
Jan 22-24 1993
Feb 26-28 1993
Sep 24-26 1993
Nov 24-26 1995
Sep 7-9 2001
Jun 21 - 23 2002
Jan 31 - 2 Feb 2003
Aug 22-24 1986
Sep 19-21 1986
Nov 20-22 & 27-29 1987
Jun 12-14 1992
Jul 24-26 1992
Aug 7-9 1992
Nov 1-3 2002
Nov 15-17 2002
Jul 8-9 1987
Dec 15-17 1995
April 6-8 2001
Aug 2-4 2002
Sep 17-19 1993
Sep 21-23 2001
Dec 4-6 & 11-13 1987
Dec 19-20 1992
Oct 22-24 1993
Jan 24-26 1986
Mar 11-13 & 25-27 1988
Nov 29-30, Dec 1 1985
Feb 12-14 & 26-28 1988
Jul 10-12 1992
Sep 18-20 1992
Dec 13-15 2002
Jul 6-8 1987
Oct 8-10 1993
Jan 17-19 2003
May 14-16 1993
May 16-18 1986
Jun 2-4 & 16-18 1989
Sep 3-5 1993
Dec 3-5 1993
Dec 13-15 1985
April 18-20 1986
Sep 4-6 1992
Nov 6-8 1992
Feb 5-7 1993
Jul 3-5 1987
Jun 23-25 1989
Mar 19-21 1993
Jul 18-20 1986
Jun 26-28 1987
May 27-29 1988
Oct 23-25 1992
Feb 14-16 2003
Jun 20-22 1986
May 28-30 1993
Jul 9-11 1993
Aug 6-8 1993
Nov 19-21 1993
Oct 17-19 1986
Dec 12-14 1986
Jun 10-12 & 24-26 1988
Dec 11-13 1992
Jul 23-25 1993
Nov 5-7 1993
Feb 21-23 1986
May 15-17 1987
Jun 12-14 1987
Feb 3-5 & 17-19 1989
Mar 14-16 2003
April 8-10 & 29-30 - May 1 1988
Dec 2-4 & 9-11 1988
Nov 10-12, 17-19 & 24-26 1989
Dec 17-19 1993
Feb 28-2 Mar 2003
May 1-3 1987
Nov 20-22 1992
April 16-18 1993
Jun 5-7 1987
Jul 8-10 & 22-24 1988
May 19-21 1989
Jul 7-9 & 21-23 1989
Dec 1-3 & 8-10 1989
Jan 14-16 1994
Nov 14-16 1986
Jun 19-21 1987
Jan 28-30 1994
Feb 11-13 1994
Mar 25-27 1994
Mar 27-29 1987
April 3-5, 10-12 1987
May 5-7 1989
Aug 11-13 & 25-27 1989
Dec 4-6 1992
Nov 4-6 & 18-20 1988
April 7-9 & 21-24 1989
April 2-4 1993
Sep 2-4 1994
Mar 13-15 1987
May 13-15 1994
Mar 21-23 2003
Mar 21-23 1986
Oct 7-9 & 21-23 1988
Mar 3-5 & 17-19 1989
Mar 30, 31, April 1 1990
Jun 11-13 1993
April 15-17 1994
April 11-13 2003
Jan 30, 31, Feb 1, 6-8 1987
Feb 13-15, 27, 28 - Mar 1 1987
Jul 29-31, Aug 5-7 & 19-21 1988
April 30-2 May 1993
Feb 25-27 1994
Jan 27-29 1995
Sep 9-11 & 23-25 1988
Jun 25-27 1993
Sep 16-18 1994
Sep 23-25 1994
May 16-18 2003
May 30-Jun 1 2003
Oct 6-8 & 20-22 1989
Nov 4-6 1994
Sep 8-10 & 22-24 1989
Mar 20-22 1990
April 29 - May 1 1994
Feb 2-4 & 16-18 1990
Jan 13-15 1995
Mar 28-30 2003
Oct 21-23 1994
May 2-4 2003
Nov 18-20 1994
Mar 2-4 1990
Oct 7-9 1994
Mar 11-13 1994
Mar 16-18 1990
Dec 16-18 1994
Dec 2-4 1994

34
30
29
29
28
27
26
26
26
25
25
24
24
24
24
23
23
23
23
23
23
22
22
22
22
21
21
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
16
16
16
16
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-4
-4
-4
-4
-4
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-8
-8
-8
-8
-8
-8
-9
-9
-9
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-11
-11
-11
-11
-11
-11
-11
-11
-12
-12
-12
-12
-13
-13
-14
-14
-14
-15
-15
-16
-16
-16
-16
-16
-17
-17
-17
-18
-19
-19
-19
-19
-20
-20
-20
-20
-20
-21
-21
-21
-22
-22
-22
-22
-22
-23
-23
-23
-23
-23
-24
-24
-24
-24
-24
-24
-25
-25
-25
-25
-25
-26
-26
-26
-26
-26
-27
-27
-27
-28
-28
-28
-28
-28
-28
-29
-29
-29
-29
-29
-30
-30
-30
-30
-30
-31
-31
-31
-31
-32
-32
-32
-33
-33
-33
-33
-33
-33
-33
-34
-34
-34
-34
-34
-34
-35
-35
-35
-35
-35
-35
-36
-36
-37
-37
-37
-38
-38
-38
-39
-39
-40
-41
-41
-42
-44
-45
-49

54
47
51
56
55
55
46
56
55
46
55
48
39
41
45
42
48
48
44
48
54
40
45
46
51
47
50
38
50
43
51
52
47
51
46
49
50
53
45
46
31
51
49
50
51
50
51
43
46
47
52
50
51
50
52
45
49
51
50
46
51
49
49
51
49
50
48
48
48
49
47
48
51
45
46
48
49
48
48
49
45
46
51
45
47
42
44
45
48
48
47
48
39
43
43
43
41
45
46
41
43
44
43
46
45
46
46
50
42
46
44
45
46
46
45
47
46
41
44
43
46
41
45
46
42
45
43
43
43
44
44
46
30
30
36
42
40
39
42
43
42
43
45
43
46
32
36
45
40
43
45
37
44
42
44
41
40
43
43
41
39
42
42
43
43
44
35
39
42
42
42
43
35
35
38
40
42
42
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41
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38
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44
41
41
37
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36
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35
34
36
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38
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41
41
34
39
34
40
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35
40
38
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32
34
39
38
38
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37
33
35
38
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36
34
34
40
37
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31
37
37
38
35
35
34
35
32
36
35
35
32
38
35
31
33
32
27
35
33
29
29
33
33
33
35
28
34
31
35
34
31
31
30
30
30
32
30
32
32
32
32
30
31
29
31
33
32
27
31
31
29
30
29
30
29
30
32
30
22
26
28
27
29
31
28
29
28
30
28
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27
29
30
29
29
24
28
26
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23
27
28
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26
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28
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26
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28
24
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27
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20
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20
17
22
27
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20
30
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30
24
15
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25
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21
25
31
18
23
24
29
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17
29
23
31
32
27
31
26
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30
33
26
27
12
32
31
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34
26
29
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35
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31
36
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32
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33
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31
33
34
37
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36
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28
33
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31
36
37
32
34
35
34
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36
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42
34
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36
37
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39
34
37
36
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36
39
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41
25
25
31
37
36
35
38
39
38
39
41
39
42
28
32
42
37
40
42
34
42
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34
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