Last
Friday, three pollsters - ACNielsen, Galaxy and Morgan - served
up just what the Howard government wanted at the end of week one
of the campaign: a tightening in the two party preferred vote
gap. But will the polls continue to narrow over the next five
weeks? And if they do, will it be enough to get the Howard
government over the line?
One might expect that, with the economy humming and the
government not loathed, they should continue to make ground.
But
intuition is a flimsy tool. The last decade has seen, in most
states and territories, record-setting election results, for
little apparent reason. We don’t really know what makes voters
tick, and sometimes they do the inexplicable.
Another
reason to expect a close election is John Howard’s campaigning
record. He always makes ground in the campaign, the story goes.
But
the evidence for this is mixed.
During
the 1998 campaign, the polls showed only modest improvement in
Coalition support. And in 2001, the government actually went
backwards – and by a large amount.
In
2004 Howard made ground, but how much depends on which pollster
you use.
The
most respected outfit, Newspoll, had Labor ahead 52 to 48 just
before the campaign began, and eventually published 50 50 on
election-day. That’s a small gain. On the other hand, the
election result came in at 52.8 to 47.2, which represents a five
point turnaround from before the campaign. A five point
improvement from the final pre-campaign Newspoll taken the
weekend before last (56 to 44 in Labor’s favour), would put
the government in contention.
However,
the main reason Newspoll erred in 2004 lay in their method of
arriving at two party preferred votes. Their primary votes were
"accurate", but they overly favoured Labor in
preference distribution. . So the government didn’t so much
narrow the Newspoll gap in 2004, as perform better than Newspoll
suggested they would.
And
this year the pollster has largely got its preference act
together.
However,
a glimmer of hope for the government does lie in one of the
pollsters who delivered last week’s good news: ACNielsen. Its
2004 numbers form a dream narrative for the government.
Nielsen’s
last reading before the 2004 campaign had the ALP ahead 53 to
47. From then the gap narrowed, the government gradually took
the lead, and the final poll said 54 to 46 in the government’s
favour – a seven percent turnaround.
Back
to 2007. Nielsen’s final pre-campaign survey had Labor ahead
56 to 44, and Friday’s poll said 54 to 46. If it continues
along the 2004 narrative, the final poll, published on election
day, will show 51 to 49 - in the government’s favour.
And
even if it overstates by a percent, as it did in 2004, that’s
50 50 at the ballot box - a likely Coalition win.
Fans
of nail-biting finishes everywhere will be hoping the ACNielsen
story repeats this year.
Peter
Brent is publisher of mumble.com.au
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