Geoff Gallop's electoral record was not impressive, writes Peter Brent.

The circumstances of West Australian premier Geoff Gallop's resignation this week guaranteed nice things would be said about him. But tales of his electoral prowess can't go unanswered.

Typical assertions were that he was "one of the nation's most popular premiers" who "could well have governed for another seven years". In reality he was closer to least popular, and was unlikely to win again.

Gallop may or may not have been a wonderful premier, but his electoral record was poor. Political observers of all Australian jurisdictions tend to look at trees rather than the forest, and most will tell you that their premier/chief minister/prime minister is a highly skilled operator, and the opposition is a joke. But it is more useful to recognise that current conditions greatly favour incumbents - at least for several terms - and oppositions have trouble getting a look-in. In this context, Gallop did poorly.

Over the past decade, the states and territories have, one by one, followed the same script: narrowly electing a Labor government, and then returning it with a thumping majority. In most cases this initially led to minority governments, in three it was with less than half the two-party preferred vote, and in three (Queensland in 1998 and Western Australia and the Northern Territory in 2001) it was partly due to a One Nation effect.

However, from shaky foundations, re-elections have been huge. Peter Beattie in Queensland and Steve Bracks in Victoria set state records for Labor wins, getting about 58 per cent of the vote after preferences and more than two-thirds of the seats. Bob Carr received 56 per cent in NSW and Clare Martin 59 per cent in the Northern Territory.

(To put these numbers in perspective, John Howard's 1996 landslide was with 53.5 per cent.) ACT and Tasmanian re-elections were also massive and South Australia's Mike Rann looks set to win big in March.

And Gallop? Many were surprised he got back at all. After generally trailing badly in opinion polls, he won with 52 per cent two-party preferred and a modest majority.

We can also look at average Newspoll "satisfaction with premier" ratings. Here the best score over a first term was Mike Rann (who is still in that term) on 65 per cent. Beattie and Bracks got 62 per cent, and Gallop received 54 per cent - higher than Tasmanian Jim Bacon's 45 per cent and Carr's 40 per cent. Gallop was below the middle, not "one of the most popular". (After his re-election, he dropped to 49 per cent.)

Western Australia's economy rattled along for five years, but Gallop spent most of the time in the poll doldrums. His re-election was close, and he probably didn't have another in him. Others can judge the quality of his premiership but whatever that hard-to-define "it" factor - that electoral gold - is, Geoff Gallop didn't have it.

Peter Brent is editor of mumble.com.au, a website that looks at electoral behaviour.

*This page has been dummied up as no online version was available.