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LIKE a twisted ex-lover who can't believe it's over, the federal Labor Party keeps returning to the killing fields of Sydney's west. Simon Crean's been loitering there all week and was joined in Parramatta on Tuesday by the full shadow cabinet to unveil the Working Families Policy.

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Western Sydney being Mark Latham territory, everyone was on their best behaviour and nobody got decked. Crean reminded journalists that this had been his first port of call upon becoming Opposition Leader, the gang had certainly all been out there taking notes, and they would be returning again many times, don't you worry about that.

Got it? The ALP is all ears for Sydney's west, and you can probably recite the reasons off by heart. They go like this: John Howard has captured the Labor heartland. Like the American "Reagan Democrats" of the 1980s, these working-class folk find comfort in the Howard mix of social conservatism and economic liberalism. Western Sydney is now "strongly Liberal", the next election will be won or lost there, and so Labor had better get back to basics quickly if it is to regain the so-called battlers.

But hang on, the plot thickens, because an exotic new creature has been seen roaming the suburbs – the "aspirational voter" (hereafter called AV). Many claim to know it intimately but pictures are rare and fuzzy. Some seem to use it as just a new phrase for battler, while others construct a related but distinct species with its own special needs.

So that everyone hasn't been talking complete twaddle for three years, let's assume it is indeed a discrete entity: a battler made good, perhaps. Probably that self-employed neighbour who's always in the yard, extending this, laying that, with a four-wheel drive or two in the garage.

Battlers and AVs share a disdain for trendy middle-class issues, but on matters economic they part ways. AVs like nothing better than a tax cut and low interest rates, while battlers would still appreciate a helping hand – maybe in the form of Latham's share scheme.

Got all that? This is the dilemma facing the federal ALP. The story of Howard's Battlers is a great yarn and generates bountiful copy. Unfortunately, a great load of twaddle is what it is.

Get yourself an electoral map of Sydney. Draw a line from Sydney's Town Hall out to Penrith, down to Campbelltown and back in again. You've got a triangle containing every seat that could remotely be classified Sydney's west. There are 16 in all, 13 of them still in Labor hands, notwithstanding last year's "debacle". And an extra three seats does not a victory make.

Labor has never gotten over losing Parramatta and Lindsay in 1996 (Macarthur was always fickle), but they should. The 1996 census figures had these three topping the gang of 16 in median income. Six years on, the gap has probably widened. These are not battlers. The love has died, Labor. Get over it.

It was not just Sydney but the whole of NSW that polled poorly last year. This relative underperformance was due to six years of NSW Premier Bob Carr, and while he's around, things won't improve. The last time NSW unloaded a state ALP administration (1988), it went to the next federal poll and swung to federal Labor to the tune of 2 per cent while the rest of the country went 2 per cent the other way.

So listen, Labor, get a grip on yourself. Some would call this stalking. They're not worth it, try your luck in other states.

Peter Brent is editor of mumble.com.au.

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