Malcolm Mackerras: Labor will hold on, just

Malcolm Mackerras

MARCH 2002 saw the end of a process that had been going on for some years. As a result of the change of government in South Australia that month, it is now the case that all six state premiers and both territory chief ministers are from the Labor Party.

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At the Queensland general election on September 9, we will learn whether the drought for conservative politics at state level has been broken.

I feel sure the answer will be no, but I still expect the non-Labor parties to perform quite well all the same.

Indeed, while I expect all the state and territory Labor governments to win their next elections, I rate Queensland as the one where victory is least assured.

I shall begin with my prediction. It is Labor 47 seats (a loss of 12), the Nationals 21 (a gain of five), the Liberal Party 17 (a gain of 10), with the rest having four seats, a loss of three.

That would put Labor on 47 seats with non-Labor on 42, leaving Labor with an overall majority of five.

The way I get that is to begin with the Mackerras pendulum and with my estimates of aggregate two-party-preferred votes, as set out in the first table. So first let me say something about these.

In Queensland they do not count out the full two-party-preferred vote - they merely count out the full two-candidate-preferred vote. In a significant number of cases the contest involves a finalist who is an independent or from a minor party, especially One Nation. Hence the need for the analyst to make estimates.

In the pendulum, I have decided to place all the elected independents on the coalition side and show the swing required by Labor to take the seat. The purpose is for the pendulum to be consistent as a predictive device between Labor and non-Labor.

In a few seats I have converted the contest into a conventional Labor v coalition scale, based essentially on my judgment.

While predictions are inherently dangerous, there is one I can make that is totally safe: no seat will change hands between the Nationals and Liberals, given the coalition agreement to field only one candidate in each seat.

My prediction is that Labor will gain no seats, but candidates from the Nationals will gain Gympie and Nanango from independents as well as winning Keppel, Hervey Bay and Bundaberg from Labor.

On the Labor side I show the seat of Noosa as held by an independent. The seat is actually held by Cate Molloy. She was elected as a Labor member, taking the seat from the Liberal Party in February 2001 and increasing her majority in February 2004. She will stand as an independent at this election.

The swing figure for Noosa is that needed by the Liberal Party to take Noosa from Molloy as Labor. I believe the Liberals will pick up Noosa on September 9, together with Clayfield, Kawana, Mudgeeraba, Indooroopilly, Barron River, Broadwater, Aspley, Burleigh and Springwood.

Immediately following the 2004 election, I drew up my pendulum showing Labor on 63 seats, the number won at that general election.

However, subsequent to that I have changed Noosa from Labor to independent (as described above) but I also changed Chatsworth, Gaven and Redcliffe.

The reason for that is there were by-elections in August last year for Chatsworth and Redcliffe when both seats were gained by the Liberal Party. Then in April this year there was a by-election for Gaven when the seat was picked up by the Nationals.

So the by-election results are my basis for placing these three seats on the right-hand side of the pendulum.

The same electoral boundaries applied for the three general elections of 1992, 1995 and 1998.

A major redistribution followed in 1999, though the number of seats was left at 89.

The general elections in 2001, 2004 and this year have been conducted on those boundaries, and there will be a further redistribution of seats during the coming term.

Both in the immediate future and over the longer term the big question for analysts is this: how likely is it that the Liberals will overtake the Nationals in terms of seats held?

Those who believe the overtaking by the Liberals is probable point to the marginal Labor seats on the pendulum.

There are 24 such seats up to the 9 per cent marker. Of those, 15 have Liberal candidates while only nine are being contested by the Nationals.

For the record, those nine seats are Keppel, Hervey Bay, Bundaberg, Toowoomba North, Cook, Mulgrave, Thuringowa, Redlands and Glass House.

These statistics would suggest the Liberals will be the bigger party in any future coalition government.

On the other hand, it should be mentioned that the One Nation seat of Tablelands plus the current five seats of the elected independents (by which I mean all excluding Noosa) are all being contested by candidates from the Nationals.

Because of these factors, I am not willing to predict which of the two parties will be the bigger in any future coalition government.

But I have no doubt that the Nationals will be bigger than the Liberals during the coming parliamentary term.

Malcolm Mackerras is visiting fellow in political science, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, at the University of NSW at the Australian Defence Force Academy in Canberra