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Predicting the Queensland result
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There be no person alive claiming the Coalition
will win the
Queensland State election on February 7. But everyone also agrees Labor's
margin will shrink. (Typical prognosis: "I think the Coalition will make
inroads, but can't see them overhauling Beattie's massive majority")
The boldest predictor, as always, is Malcolm Mackerras, who sees
Labor emerging with a 53 to 47 two party preferred vote and
a majority slashed
from 43 to 15.
It is brave in specificity, and in being a closer result than most would
imagine.
Antony Green doesn't
tend to predict, and
reckons two party preferred doesn't make sense in Queensland, but agrees that
Beattie with a reduced majority is the most likely outcome.
The
Poll Bludger
has intimated about 55 to 45
two party preferred, which, if you plot along the pendulum, would cut Beattie's
majority to about 23.
As I come across other predictions I'll put them up here.
My prediction
But here's mine. I reserve the right to make updates over next
two weeks, but promise not to cheat and change these numbers.
I'll give a general reasoning, followed by specifics: a Labor primary vote,
a
two party preferred one and seat majority. Then I'll nominate which seats Labor
loses/wins. (These will be linked to Antony
Green's seat pages.)
The general
Labor will perform at the higher end of expectations, with the
two party preferred gap remaining over 15
percent. I reckon this, firstly, because the opinion polls point to it. Also, Bob Carr in NSW pulled off a
big second re-election a year ago and these Labor premiers seem to be following
the same script. (Or rather, state voters are.)
Within that template, give Beattie points because he is a vote
magnet and superior politician to Carr, but deduct several because of the Cherry
and Green OPV stuff at Crikey.
So Labor's position after preferences will improve in places,
but go backwards overall.
The numbers
Labor's primary vote to come in at 49
percent, with two party
preferred (for those who believe in it in Queensland) rounding to 58 (so the
Coalition has 42).
Labor to lose the seats of Noosa,
Burleigh,
Charters
Towers and Kawana
to the Coalition. (After reading Cherry and
Green, was going to add Burdekin
to this list, but
decided against.)
But ALP to pick up Keppel
from the Coalition.
So number of Labor seats
reduced from 66 to 63, Labor majority trimmed from 43 to
37.
As mentioned, way at the higher end of expectations. A wise
person would not make predictions like this - but where would be the fun in that?
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